OK,I know one of you smarter folks out there can explain this to me or at least offer an explanation that will make sense. The numbers don’t add up for me. So TIA
Bill/FITX says that they are going to produce the biggest grow operation that will produce 1.3M lbs of MJ for revenue of $4.5B a year.
FACT: There are currently 9 corporations/companies that have a license to grow MMJ in Canada and are doing so as I type.
FACT: Currently FITX doesn’t have a license to grow and it could easily be 3-4 months by the time they get the building built and through all of the red tape before they are given one. This assumes they will be granted a license to grow.
FACT: Health Canada (HC) claims they currently have 40,000 users of MMJ. By the time of 2025 they expect that number to grow to approximately 500,000 users.
FACT: As of Jan 2014 the State of Colorado reports they have approximately 120, 000 MMJ users that have their red cards. Almost 3X the number of users as Canada.
FACT: I am not sure of what the latest predictions/projections from sales of MJ (both recreational and medical) are for CO. NOTE: The 120,000 users in CO DOES NOT include recreational users. Even with both recreational and medical users combined I have not seen any projections of sales being close to $1B for CO.
Discussion::
Lets assume that FITX gets its license and there are only 10 growers for Canada. For the initial discussion lets just say that the 40,000 users are divided evenly among the 10 growers and each has 4,000 users. That means that each user is going to have to spend approximately $100K+ each to reach Bills number of $4.5B. That also means each user is going to smoke/eat about 32.5 lbs a year of premium pot. Or approximately 10-12 ounces a week or about 1.5 ounces a day (assuming my math is correct).
Canada is going to have 40,000 really stoned people walking around. But I digress.
So if each grower has 4,000 customers that spend $100K each that means each grower will make about $400M a year and grow about 130K lbs of MMJ during the year.
Remember this is using Bills numbers that FITX is going to do in a year not including the other 9 growers. ($4.5B and 1.3M lbs)
Or we could say that each of the growers is going to sell 1.3M pounds of MMJ and each make $4.5B on their 4,000 customers. WOW. That means each person is going to spend $1M+ a year and smoke about 325 lbs a year or about 6lbs a week or about a pound a day. YIKES
Or Bill is going to have a monopoly and he will be the only one of the 10 growers producing MMJ in Canada. Doesn’t seem likely that a guy that has never ran a grow operation is going to knock out seasoned growers that have been doing it for years but what do I know.
I know, I know Bill is going to export some of the MMJ to Israel, Mexico, Colombia, the Netherlands, Iran and North Korea ( He specifically said North Korea not Korea) I really don’t know how Iran and N. Korea got in there but again wdik. But the one country that has done the most scientific research on MMJ (Israel) and the other major producers of MJ for decades are now going to be buying their MJ from the guy who just got started.
Now if you throw in the fact that other companies that are currently licensed to grow in Canada are going to IPO in the near future this sector could get awfully crowded very quick in the next few months.
Maybe someone can help me out because for the life of me I don’t understand how Bill is going to produce and sell all that MJ to Canada that has 1/3 the users that CO has and make $4.5B a year while competing with at least 9 other growers.
Sorry the numbers just don’t add up for me.
TIA for any help in alllowing me to understand.
GLTA
