Wednesday, February 26, 2014 12:52:32 AM
UKRAINE AND THE U.S. IMPLICATIONS OF VICTORIA NULAND'S CANDID REMARK
Published 12-02-2014, 17:20
Jack Matlock
Jack Matlock is a career diplomat who served on the front lines of American diplomacy during the Cold War and was U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union when the Cold War ended. Since retiring from the Foreign Service, he has focused on understanding how the Cold War ended and how the lessons from that experience might be applied to public policy today.
As a friend and admirer of both Russian and Ukrainian peoples and culture, I have been following the dramatic events in Kyiv since November with both sympathy for the Ukrainian protesters and concern that none of the offers from the outside will actually help them solve their most fundamental long-term problems. However, I took some limited comfort from reports that Washington would defer to and support the European Union in its efforts to guide Ukraine to a better future.
Assistant Secretary Nuland's comments to Ambassador Pyatt reveal that this may not be the case. It would seem that the United States may be competing with representatives of the European Union for influence on the composition of a new Ukrainian government. If that is in fact the policy of President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry, I believe it needs to be re-assessed without delay.
What should not be delayed, however, is a public rebuke to an Assistant Secretary of State who, whatever U.S. policy may be, has demonstrated a lack of professional competence and judgment. Discussing sensitive matters on a cell phone vulnerable to interception is a security violation in itself. Much more important is the contempt her words implied for her principal "clients" as Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs.
The publication of these comments makes her a liability rather than an asset in dealing with some of our most important allies. The lame effort by a State Department spokesman to blame the Russians for publicizing the intercept is not just embarrassing; in my view it is contemptible, given the fact that if the shoe were on the other foot-say, a Russian deputy minister discussing with the Russian ambassador how to put together an anti-U.S. government in a Latin American country-the U.S. would stop at nothing to publicize and squelch the effort.
Most of the press and punditry comment on the protests that have erupted in Kyiv since President Yanukovych refused to sign the EU association agreement in Vilnius have pictured the struggle as one that will determine the future of Ukraine. If Ukraine begins to meet the EU terms it will become a prosperous, democratic "Western" country. If, on the other hand, it accepts a loan and cheap gas from Russia, it will be a Russian vassal with no real independence. All sides to this turmoil seem to assume that this is the choice being made. I think they are all wrong.
[ Matlock does have form, .. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_F._Matlock,_Jr.#U.S._policy_and_politics .. and common sense, in 2004 he upset many when he endorsed John Kerry against Bush ]
Association with the EU will not automatically or even easily solve Ukraine's problems. Aligning the Ukrainian economy with Russia, on the other hand, will not mean permanent subjugation. It will perpetuate the present uncompetitive nature of Ukraine's economy and become a serious drain on Russia's finances and very quickly bring an increase in anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine, including the East. Current Russian policy should carry the tag line: "how to turn even friendly, Russian-speaking Ukrainians against Russia."
To understand why I believe this is so, consider the following basic facts:
1. Ukraine's most serious problems are internal, not external. They must be solved by Ukrainians, not by outsiders.
2. In the long run, Ukraine will never be free, prosperous and democratic unless it has friendly relations with Russia.
3. So far, no Ukrainian leader who can unite the country has emerged and all the political parties have their strength almost entirely in either east or west.
4. The interference of outside powers has exacerbated the regional division rather than healing it. The Yushchenko government following the "Orange Revolution" was no more successful in uniting the country and modernizing the economy than has been the Yanukovych government- though it may have been not as blatantly corrupt.
So what if President Yanukovych had signed the EC association agreement? The money available from the IMF would not have staved off bankruptcy very long and would have required unpopular austerity measures affecting ordinary people much more than the oligarchs. The government would resist creating an independent judiciary-which in any case takes decades, not months or years-and very soon there would be complaints that "democracy doesn't work." (Of course, Russian policy would do all it could to make sure nothing worked very well.) The upshot would be that, most likely, in a year to 18 months, and maybe even sooner, most Ukrainians would blame the EU and the West for their misery.
And if the Russian promise of a loan and cheap gas is renewed to some Ukrainian government, that too would do nothing to promote the reform and modernization the Ukrainian government and economy desperately need. Ukraine would be a basket case and a serious drain on Russian resources. And Ukrainians, even those in the East, would begin to blame Russia for their misery. "If only we had signed that EU association agreement...!"
In sum, I believe it has been a very big strategic mistake-by Russia, by the EU and most of all by the U.S.-to convert Ukrainian political and economic reform into an East-West struggle. There will be no winners if Ukraine is considered an appendage of one side or the other.
At this late date, developing a cooperative approach with Russia to assist Ukraine in becoming a more united and more prosperous state, would seem a hopeless task. Given present attitudes on both sides, it would be a hopeless task for the United States acting independently of the EU, which is one reason the EU should take the lead. In the long run, however, only an approach that does not threaten Russia is going to work. All the parties need to go back to square one, assess the realities, and start thinking about how Ukraine and Russia can move both their economies into the 21st century.
www.russiaotherpointsofview.com
http://us-russia.org/2097-ukraine-and-the-us-implications-of-victoria-nulands-candid-remark.html
.. the site is a US-Russia company relationships site, business orientated .. that one reads pretty fair and
reasonable, i reckon .. now to some who frame it as the East-West conflict Matlock believes should be avoided ..
~~~~
Fascists, Fascists, Everywhere
By Joshua Keating .. to the end ..
Some have also accused Yanukovych of deliberately facilitating Svoboda’s rise to prominence in western Ukraine as a useful political foil. If true, that now appears to have been a massive miscalculation on the president's part.
Svoboda’s prominence within the opposition movement is certainly concerning, not only because of the possibility it could now play a more prominent role in the future politics, but because it has allowed an increasingly authoritarian leader and his blatantly authoritarian international backers to make the case that their opponents are the ones who pose a threat to democracy.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/20/russia_says_the_ukrainian_protesters_are_fascists_and_nazis_are_they.html?wpisrc=burger_bar
~~~~
22 February 2014 Last updated at 18:34
Why is Ukraine in turmoil? .. excerpts ..
The stakes for Ukraine and its 45 million people are enormous, with the
country's fate now part of a wider strategic battle between the West and Russia.
[...]
What is at stake?
Ukraine seems be caught in a modern "Great Game". Vladimir Putin wants to make Russia a global economic player, rivalling China, the US and EU. To that end he is creating a customs union with other countries and sees Ukraine as a vital and natural element in that - not least because of the countries' deep cultural and historical ties.
The EU says assimilation and eventual membership could be worth billions of euros to Ukraine, modernising its economy and giving it access to the single market. It also wants to reverse what it sees as damaging infringements on democracy and human rights in Ukraine.
Many Ukrainians in the east, working in heavy industry that supplies Russian markets, are fearful of losing their jobs if Kiev throws in its lot with Brussels. But many in the west want the prosperity and the rule of law they believe the EU would bring. They point out that while Ukraine had a bigger GDP than Poland in 1990, Poland's economy is now nearly three times larger.
Kremlin strategy on Ukraine - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25401179
Ukraine's failing economy - who is to blame? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26127210
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25182823
~~~~
Western nations scramble to contain fallout from Ukraine crisis
Interim government signals that it will push for European integration as Russia recalls ambassador for 'consultation'
Ian Traynor in Brussels and Shaun Walker in Kiev
The Guardian, Monday 24 February 2014
Jump to comments (1384)
A portrait of Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko is seen during a rally
on Independence Square in Kiev on Sunday. Photograph: Maxim Shipenkov/EPA
Western governments are scrambling to contain the fallout from Ukraine .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine 's weekend revolution, pledging money, support and possible EU membership, while anxiously eyeing the response of Russia .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/russia 's president, Vladimir Putin .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/vladimir-putin , whose protege has been ousted.
Seemingly the biggest loser in the three-month drama's denouement, the Kremlin has the potential to create the most mischief .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/ukraine-crisis-secession-russian-crimea .. because of Ukraine's pro-Russian affinities in the east and south, and its dependence on Russian energy supplies.
Acting president Oleksander Turchinov said on Sunday night that Ukraine's new leaders wanted relations with Russia on a "new, equal and good-neighbourly footing that recognises and takes into account Ukraine's European choice".
[ .. that sounds close to Jack Matlock's (top) idea .. ]
But the tension between the Kremlin and the interim government was underlined when Russia recalled its ambassador to Ukraine on Sunday for "consultations" and to "analyse the situation from all sides", the foreign ministry said.
European Union .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/eu .. foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton will travel to Ukraine on Monday, where she is expected to discuss measures to shore up the ailing economy.
A woman pays her respects at a memorial to killed anti-government
protesters in Kiev. Photograph: Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images
With the whereabouts of the former president Viktor Yanukovych .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/viktor-yanukovych .. still uncertain, the Ukrainian parliament legitimised his downfall, giving interim presidential powers to an ally of Yulia Tymoshenko .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/ukraine-crisis-interim-president-turchynov-yanukovych-tymoshenko , the former PM who was released from jail on Saturday. Oleksandr Turchinov said the parliament should work to elect a government of national unity by Tuesday, before preparations begin for elections planned for 25 May.
Yanukovych appeared on television from an undisclosed location on Saturday night, claiming he was still president and comparing the protesters to Nazis, but he continued to haemorrhage support on Sunday; even the leader of his parliamentary faction said he had betrayed Ukraine, and given "criminal orders".
Western leaders, while welcoming the unexpected turn of events in Kiev, are worried about the country fracturing along pro-Russian and pro-western lines. [ .. as Matlock (top) .. ] They are certain to push for a new government that is as inclusive as possible to replace the collapsed and discredited administration of Yanukovych, who vanished within hours of signing an EU-mediated settlement .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/22/ukraine-president-yanukovych-flees-kiev .. with opposition leaders on Friday.
"France, together with its European partners, calls for the preservation of the country's unity and integrity and for people to refrain from violence," said Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister.
British chancellor George Osborne said early on Monday that the UK was standing ready to help the country through schemes set up by the IMF and European Union.
"It's very, very early days, early hours, but the people of Ukraine seem to have demonstrated their wish to take their country into the future, to have stronger links with Europe .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news , and I don't think we should be repelling that, we should be embracing that," he said speaking to journalists in Singapore.
"We should be there ready to provide financial assistance through organisations like the IMF, and of course a lot of this will take the form of loans and the like, but there will be good investments in the economy of Ukraine".
Putin, preoccupied with the closing ceremony of the Sochi Olympics, has not yet commented publicly on the violence of the past week and Yanukovych's flight from the capital. Angela Merkel phoned him on Sunday to press for assurances on Russia's reaction. Susan Rice, the national security adviser to Barack Obama, warned that Moscow would be making a "grave mistake" if it sent military aid to Ukraine.
Protesters roam the garden in front of the mansion of former Ukrainian president Viktor
Yanukovych's home in Mezhygirya, near Kiev. Photograph: Etienne De Malglaive/Getty Images
"There are many dangers," said William Hague .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/william-hague-warns-russia-ukraine-relations-west , the foreign secretary. "We don't know, of course, what Russia's next reaction will be. Any external duress on Ukraine, any more than we've seen in recent weeks … it really would not be in the interests of Russia to do any such thing."
Whether such nightmares are realised will hinge largely on the Kremlin's position and policies. Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, has called the protesters on Independence Square "pogromists", but it appears that Moscow is grudgingly coming to terms with the new reality. In a phone call with the US secretary of state, John Kerry, on Sunday, Lavrov accused the opposition of seizing power and failing to abide by the peace deal thrashed out on Friday.
Analysts say Yanukovych, disgraced as he is, no longer holds any use for the Kremlin, but how the Russians will react on the ground is still an open question. This also partly depends on the new Ukraine government. One of the first issues the parliament tackled this weekend was that of the language, annulling a bill that provided for Russian to be used as a second official language in regions with large Russian-speaking populations. If the new government also looks to end the lease of a Black Sea naval base by the Russian military, the response from Moscow could be more aggressive.
"It will definitely depend on how the new government behaves," said Vladimir Zharikin, a Moscow-based analyst. "If they continue with these revolutionary excesses then certainly, that could push other parts of the country towards separatist feelings. Let's hope that doesn't happen."
In Kiev, the barricades around Independence Square remained in place, though the lines of riot police have long dissipated. Thousands of people came to the barricades to pay respects to the 77 people who died last week in the bloody clashes that eventually led to Yanukovych fleeing.
As the third of three official days of mourning ended, priests continued to sing laments from the stage in the square. Between the soot-black pavements and the slate-grey sky, there were splashes of bright colour as thousands brought bunches of flowers to lay at makeshift memorials to the dead.
At Yanukovych's residence outside Kiev, a team of investigative journalists went to work on a trove of documents fished from the water .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/viktor-yanukovych-ukraine-secret-documents ; the president's minders had apparently tried to destroy them before fleeing. Thousands of people again came to see the vast, luxurious compound with their own eyes .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2014/feb/22/ukrainian-president-palace-in-pictures .
Tymoshenko, who has her eyes on the presidency, met the US and EU ambassadors in Kiev. She was released from prison on Saturday and went straight to Independence Square, where she promised to fight for a free Ukraine. There was ambivalence about the former PM among the protesters, with many feeling that she represents the divisive and corrupt politics of the past.
There was no clear central authority in Kiev on Sunday, with the city patrolled by a self-proclaimed "defence force", comprising groups of men wearing helmets and carrying baseball bats. Nevertheless, the mood was orderly and peaceful, and the protest representatives have been meeting with the police and security services in an attempt to restore a feeling of normality to the capital.
With the country about to turn a new page in its history, for the first time since the crisis erupted in November senior EU officials spoke of the possibility of Ukraine joining the union which, if serious, would represent a major policy shift.
"We are at a historical juncture and Europe needs to live up to its historical moment and be able to provide Ukraine with an accession perspective in the medium to long term – if it can meet the conditions of accession," said the economics commissioner, Olli Rehn, at a G20 meeting in Australia.
Until now, Brussels's policy towards Ukraine and other post-Soviet states, known as the eastern partnership, has been expressly intended as a substitute for rather than a step towards EU membership. It was the EU deal – Yanukovych's rejection of political and trade pacts with the bloc in favour of cheap loans and energy from Russia – that sparked the conflict and crisis in November.
With the likelihood of Russia's $15bn (£9bn) lifeline dissolving, the EU is under pressure to come up with funding to shore up the country's economy, on the brink of bankruptcy. "We are ready to engage in substantial financial assistance for Ukraine once a political solution, based on democratic principles, is finalised and once there is a new government which is genuinely and seriously engaged in institutional and economic reforms," said Rehn.
The EU said Baroness Ashton would travel to Ukraine on Monday. "In Kiev she is expected to meet key stakeholders and discuss the support of the European Union for a lasting solution to the political crisis and measures to stabilise the economic situation," an EU statement said.
The upshot is expected to be an IMF programme, supported by the US and the EU, although EU officials partly blame the IMF for the November fiasco by attaching strict terms to loans and prodding Yanukovych towards Moscow.
"We will be ready to engage, ready to help," said Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief who is also being tipped as a contender for a top job at the EU this year. The fund is likely to insist on major reforms and steps in an attempt to prevent the plunder of the country by Ukraine's oligarchs.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/ukraine-crisis-western-nations-eu-russia
Published 12-02-2014, 17:20
Jack Matlock
Jack Matlock is a career diplomat who served on the front lines of American diplomacy during the Cold War and was U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union when the Cold War ended. Since retiring from the Foreign Service, he has focused on understanding how the Cold War ended and how the lessons from that experience might be applied to public policy today.
As a friend and admirer of both Russian and Ukrainian peoples and culture, I have been following the dramatic events in Kyiv since November with both sympathy for the Ukrainian protesters and concern that none of the offers from the outside will actually help them solve their most fundamental long-term problems. However, I took some limited comfort from reports that Washington would defer to and support the European Union in its efforts to guide Ukraine to a better future.
Assistant Secretary Nuland's comments to Ambassador Pyatt reveal that this may not be the case. It would seem that the United States may be competing with representatives of the European Union for influence on the composition of a new Ukrainian government. If that is in fact the policy of President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry, I believe it needs to be re-assessed without delay.
What should not be delayed, however, is a public rebuke to an Assistant Secretary of State who, whatever U.S. policy may be, has demonstrated a lack of professional competence and judgment. Discussing sensitive matters on a cell phone vulnerable to interception is a security violation in itself. Much more important is the contempt her words implied for her principal "clients" as Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs.
The publication of these comments makes her a liability rather than an asset in dealing with some of our most important allies. The lame effort by a State Department spokesman to blame the Russians for publicizing the intercept is not just embarrassing; in my view it is contemptible, given the fact that if the shoe were on the other foot-say, a Russian deputy minister discussing with the Russian ambassador how to put together an anti-U.S. government in a Latin American country-the U.S. would stop at nothing to publicize and squelch the effort.
Most of the press and punditry comment on the protests that have erupted in Kyiv since President Yanukovych refused to sign the EU association agreement in Vilnius have pictured the struggle as one that will determine the future of Ukraine. If Ukraine begins to meet the EU terms it will become a prosperous, democratic "Western" country. If, on the other hand, it accepts a loan and cheap gas from Russia, it will be a Russian vassal with no real independence. All sides to this turmoil seem to assume that this is the choice being made. I think they are all wrong.
[ Matlock does have form, .. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_F._Matlock,_Jr.#U.S._policy_and_politics .. and common sense, in 2004 he upset many when he endorsed John Kerry against Bush ]
Association with the EU will not automatically or even easily solve Ukraine's problems. Aligning the Ukrainian economy with Russia, on the other hand, will not mean permanent subjugation. It will perpetuate the present uncompetitive nature of Ukraine's economy and become a serious drain on Russia's finances and very quickly bring an increase in anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine, including the East. Current Russian policy should carry the tag line: "how to turn even friendly, Russian-speaking Ukrainians against Russia."
To understand why I believe this is so, consider the following basic facts:
1. Ukraine's most serious problems are internal, not external. They must be solved by Ukrainians, not by outsiders.
2. In the long run, Ukraine will never be free, prosperous and democratic unless it has friendly relations with Russia.
3. So far, no Ukrainian leader who can unite the country has emerged and all the political parties have their strength almost entirely in either east or west.
4. The interference of outside powers has exacerbated the regional division rather than healing it. The Yushchenko government following the "Orange Revolution" was no more successful in uniting the country and modernizing the economy than has been the Yanukovych government- though it may have been not as blatantly corrupt.
So what if President Yanukovych had signed the EC association agreement? The money available from the IMF would not have staved off bankruptcy very long and would have required unpopular austerity measures affecting ordinary people much more than the oligarchs. The government would resist creating an independent judiciary-which in any case takes decades, not months or years-and very soon there would be complaints that "democracy doesn't work." (Of course, Russian policy would do all it could to make sure nothing worked very well.) The upshot would be that, most likely, in a year to 18 months, and maybe even sooner, most Ukrainians would blame the EU and the West for their misery.
And if the Russian promise of a loan and cheap gas is renewed to some Ukrainian government, that too would do nothing to promote the reform and modernization the Ukrainian government and economy desperately need. Ukraine would be a basket case and a serious drain on Russian resources. And Ukrainians, even those in the East, would begin to blame Russia for their misery. "If only we had signed that EU association agreement...!"
In sum, I believe it has been a very big strategic mistake-by Russia, by the EU and most of all by the U.S.-to convert Ukrainian political and economic reform into an East-West struggle. There will be no winners if Ukraine is considered an appendage of one side or the other.
At this late date, developing a cooperative approach with Russia to assist Ukraine in becoming a more united and more prosperous state, would seem a hopeless task. Given present attitudes on both sides, it would be a hopeless task for the United States acting independently of the EU, which is one reason the EU should take the lead. In the long run, however, only an approach that does not threaten Russia is going to work. All the parties need to go back to square one, assess the realities, and start thinking about how Ukraine and Russia can move both their economies into the 21st century.
www.russiaotherpointsofview.com
http://us-russia.org/2097-ukraine-and-the-us-implications-of-victoria-nulands-candid-remark.html
.. the site is a US-Russia company relationships site, business orientated .. that one reads pretty fair and
reasonable, i reckon .. now to some who frame it as the East-West conflict Matlock believes should be avoided ..
~~~~
Fascists, Fascists, Everywhere
By Joshua Keating .. to the end ..
Some have also accused Yanukovych of deliberately facilitating Svoboda’s rise to prominence in western Ukraine as a useful political foil. If true, that now appears to have been a massive miscalculation on the president's part.
Svoboda’s prominence within the opposition movement is certainly concerning, not only because of the possibility it could now play a more prominent role in the future politics, but because it has allowed an increasingly authoritarian leader and his blatantly authoritarian international backers to make the case that their opponents are the ones who pose a threat to democracy.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/20/russia_says_the_ukrainian_protesters_are_fascists_and_nazis_are_they.html?wpisrc=burger_bar
~~~~
22 February 2014 Last updated at 18:34
Why is Ukraine in turmoil? .. excerpts ..
The stakes for Ukraine and its 45 million people are enormous, with the
country's fate now part of a wider strategic battle between the West and Russia.
[...]
What is at stake?
Ukraine seems be caught in a modern "Great Game". Vladimir Putin wants to make Russia a global economic player, rivalling China, the US and EU. To that end he is creating a customs union with other countries and sees Ukraine as a vital and natural element in that - not least because of the countries' deep cultural and historical ties.
The EU says assimilation and eventual membership could be worth billions of euros to Ukraine, modernising its economy and giving it access to the single market. It also wants to reverse what it sees as damaging infringements on democracy and human rights in Ukraine.
Many Ukrainians in the east, working in heavy industry that supplies Russian markets, are fearful of losing their jobs if Kiev throws in its lot with Brussels. But many in the west want the prosperity and the rule of law they believe the EU would bring. They point out that while Ukraine had a bigger GDP than Poland in 1990, Poland's economy is now nearly three times larger.
Kremlin strategy on Ukraine - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25401179
Ukraine's failing economy - who is to blame? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26127210
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25182823
~~~~
Western nations scramble to contain fallout from Ukraine crisis
Interim government signals that it will push for European integration as Russia recalls ambassador for 'consultation'
Ian Traynor in Brussels and Shaun Walker in Kiev
The Guardian, Monday 24 February 2014
Jump to comments (1384)
A portrait of Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko is seen during a rally
on Independence Square in Kiev on Sunday. Photograph: Maxim Shipenkov/EPA
Western governments are scrambling to contain the fallout from Ukraine .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine 's weekend revolution, pledging money, support and possible EU membership, while anxiously eyeing the response of Russia .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/russia 's president, Vladimir Putin .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/vladimir-putin , whose protege has been ousted.
Seemingly the biggest loser in the three-month drama's denouement, the Kremlin has the potential to create the most mischief .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/ukraine-crisis-secession-russian-crimea .. because of Ukraine's pro-Russian affinities in the east and south, and its dependence on Russian energy supplies.
Acting president Oleksander Turchinov said on Sunday night that Ukraine's new leaders wanted relations with Russia on a "new, equal and good-neighbourly footing that recognises and takes into account Ukraine's European choice".
[ .. that sounds close to Jack Matlock's (top) idea .. ]
But the tension between the Kremlin and the interim government was underlined when Russia recalled its ambassador to Ukraine on Sunday for "consultations" and to "analyse the situation from all sides", the foreign ministry said.
European Union .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/eu .. foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton will travel to Ukraine on Monday, where she is expected to discuss measures to shore up the ailing economy.
A woman pays her respects at a memorial to killed anti-government
protesters in Kiev. Photograph: Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images
With the whereabouts of the former president Viktor Yanukovych .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/viktor-yanukovych .. still uncertain, the Ukrainian parliament legitimised his downfall, giving interim presidential powers to an ally of Yulia Tymoshenko .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/ukraine-crisis-interim-president-turchynov-yanukovych-tymoshenko , the former PM who was released from jail on Saturday. Oleksandr Turchinov said the parliament should work to elect a government of national unity by Tuesday, before preparations begin for elections planned for 25 May.
Yanukovych appeared on television from an undisclosed location on Saturday night, claiming he was still president and comparing the protesters to Nazis, but he continued to haemorrhage support on Sunday; even the leader of his parliamentary faction said he had betrayed Ukraine, and given "criminal orders".
Western leaders, while welcoming the unexpected turn of events in Kiev, are worried about the country fracturing along pro-Russian and pro-western lines. [ .. as Matlock (top) .. ] They are certain to push for a new government that is as inclusive as possible to replace the collapsed and discredited administration of Yanukovych, who vanished within hours of signing an EU-mediated settlement .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/22/ukraine-president-yanukovych-flees-kiev .. with opposition leaders on Friday.
"France, together with its European partners, calls for the preservation of the country's unity and integrity and for people to refrain from violence," said Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister.
British chancellor George Osborne said early on Monday that the UK was standing ready to help the country through schemes set up by the IMF and European Union.
"It's very, very early days, early hours, but the people of Ukraine seem to have demonstrated their wish to take their country into the future, to have stronger links with Europe .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news , and I don't think we should be repelling that, we should be embracing that," he said speaking to journalists in Singapore.
"We should be there ready to provide financial assistance through organisations like the IMF, and of course a lot of this will take the form of loans and the like, but there will be good investments in the economy of Ukraine".
Putin, preoccupied with the closing ceremony of the Sochi Olympics, has not yet commented publicly on the violence of the past week and Yanukovych's flight from the capital. Angela Merkel phoned him on Sunday to press for assurances on Russia's reaction. Susan Rice, the national security adviser to Barack Obama, warned that Moscow would be making a "grave mistake" if it sent military aid to Ukraine.
Protesters roam the garden in front of the mansion of former Ukrainian president Viktor
Yanukovych's home in Mezhygirya, near Kiev. Photograph: Etienne De Malglaive/Getty Images
"There are many dangers," said William Hague .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/william-hague-warns-russia-ukraine-relations-west , the foreign secretary. "We don't know, of course, what Russia's next reaction will be. Any external duress on Ukraine, any more than we've seen in recent weeks … it really would not be in the interests of Russia to do any such thing."
Whether such nightmares are realised will hinge largely on the Kremlin's position and policies. Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, has called the protesters on Independence Square "pogromists", but it appears that Moscow is grudgingly coming to terms with the new reality. In a phone call with the US secretary of state, John Kerry, on Sunday, Lavrov accused the opposition of seizing power and failing to abide by the peace deal thrashed out on Friday.
Analysts say Yanukovych, disgraced as he is, no longer holds any use for the Kremlin, but how the Russians will react on the ground is still an open question. This also partly depends on the new Ukraine government. One of the first issues the parliament tackled this weekend was that of the language, annulling a bill that provided for Russian to be used as a second official language in regions with large Russian-speaking populations. If the new government also looks to end the lease of a Black Sea naval base by the Russian military, the response from Moscow could be more aggressive.
"It will definitely depend on how the new government behaves," said Vladimir Zharikin, a Moscow-based analyst. "If they continue with these revolutionary excesses then certainly, that could push other parts of the country towards separatist feelings. Let's hope that doesn't happen."
In Kiev, the barricades around Independence Square remained in place, though the lines of riot police have long dissipated. Thousands of people came to the barricades to pay respects to the 77 people who died last week in the bloody clashes that eventually led to Yanukovych fleeing.
As the third of three official days of mourning ended, priests continued to sing laments from the stage in the square. Between the soot-black pavements and the slate-grey sky, there were splashes of bright colour as thousands brought bunches of flowers to lay at makeshift memorials to the dead.
At Yanukovych's residence outside Kiev, a team of investigative journalists went to work on a trove of documents fished from the water .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/viktor-yanukovych-ukraine-secret-documents ; the president's minders had apparently tried to destroy them before fleeing. Thousands of people again came to see the vast, luxurious compound with their own eyes .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2014/feb/22/ukrainian-president-palace-in-pictures .
Tymoshenko, who has her eyes on the presidency, met the US and EU ambassadors in Kiev. She was released from prison on Saturday and went straight to Independence Square, where she promised to fight for a free Ukraine. There was ambivalence about the former PM among the protesters, with many feeling that she represents the divisive and corrupt politics of the past.
There was no clear central authority in Kiev on Sunday, with the city patrolled by a self-proclaimed "defence force", comprising groups of men wearing helmets and carrying baseball bats. Nevertheless, the mood was orderly and peaceful, and the protest representatives have been meeting with the police and security services in an attempt to restore a feeling of normality to the capital.
With the country about to turn a new page in its history, for the first time since the crisis erupted in November senior EU officials spoke of the possibility of Ukraine joining the union which, if serious, would represent a major policy shift.
"We are at a historical juncture and Europe needs to live up to its historical moment and be able to provide Ukraine with an accession perspective in the medium to long term – if it can meet the conditions of accession," said the economics commissioner, Olli Rehn, at a G20 meeting in Australia.
Until now, Brussels's policy towards Ukraine and other post-Soviet states, known as the eastern partnership, has been expressly intended as a substitute for rather than a step towards EU membership. It was the EU deal – Yanukovych's rejection of political and trade pacts with the bloc in favour of cheap loans and energy from Russia – that sparked the conflict and crisis in November.
With the likelihood of Russia's $15bn (£9bn) lifeline dissolving, the EU is under pressure to come up with funding to shore up the country's economy, on the brink of bankruptcy. "We are ready to engage in substantial financial assistance for Ukraine once a political solution, based on democratic principles, is finalised and once there is a new government which is genuinely and seriously engaged in institutional and economic reforms," said Rehn.
The EU said Baroness Ashton would travel to Ukraine on Monday. "In Kiev she is expected to meet key stakeholders and discuss the support of the European Union for a lasting solution to the political crisis and measures to stabilise the economic situation," an EU statement said.
The upshot is expected to be an IMF programme, supported by the US and the EU, although EU officials partly blame the IMF for the November fiasco by attaching strict terms to loans and prodding Yanukovych towards Moscow.
"We will be ready to engage, ready to help," said Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief who is also being tipped as a contender for a top job at the EU this year. The fund is likely to insist on major reforms and steps in an attempt to prevent the plunder of the country by Ukraine's oligarchs.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/ukraine-crisis-western-nations-eu-russia
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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