Syncora Holdings Ltd. (fka SYCRF)

[InvestorPM]

Simple Valuation......

A very simple look at what Syncora might be worth.

Lets use 2011 Net Income of $ 244 Million as a conservative example of how much they might be able to make going forward. I selected 2011 because it was a year that did not have any big write-downs and did not have any large court settlements.

There are about 64 million shares outstanding so the EPS for 2011 was $3.8.

So currently at a $1.48 price Syncora is trading at a P/E ratio of 0.39. If we look at AGO, MBI, and AMBC they currently have P/E ratios of 8.5, 3.4 and 1.4, respectively.

So obviously Syncora’s current P/E of 0.39 is way to low. So even if the P/E gets up to the AMBC level of 1.4 the price should climb to around $5 and up to almost $13 if Syncora can reach MBI’s P/E level.

Now this is a very simple look and could only happen if they get permission to write new business …which I believe they will get by the end of the second quarter….and their credit rating is increased which should also happen in the same time frame.

I can understand why there was a lot of buying today….but I cannot understand why people were willing to sell at this level.