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Tuesday, February 25, 2014 10:32:20 AM
I agree that it SHOULD be a slam dunk FDA approval and feel the US market will likely see slightly higher net product prices per patient-year. The 7 and 10 year exclusivity should be a sufficient time horizon.
However, I succumbed to temptation and sold my shares this morning, remembering how I didn't sell when the Europeans approved Esbriet shortly after the FDA denied approval. Kicked myself frequently as the shares dropped subsequently.
I do expect the price to drop to at least 30 and possibly to 25, when people start focusing on the timeline before FDA approval (application in the 3Q2014). I plan on buying back in, a luxury afforded by trading in a Roth account, although I too am typically a holder long-term.
I hope your forecast is accurate long-term and that mine is accurate short-term.
Steve
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