I'm with you on market looking like top is in or near, I also watch TVIX,UVXY and VVIX. However, the problem with expecting TVIX to hit a new low as market goes up is the last low on TVIX was before the $VIX roll. TVIX is constantly forced to roll its contracts from the front month to higher priced futures contracts, so the daily charts are pretty much useless there. Hourly charts can useful, but TVIX is pretty flat there. $VIX is in contango, so holding TVIX can get expensive.
I think of it as going to an emergency room vs waiting for the doc. We all know the emergency room is going to charge us $1000 just to walk in the doors, but we think it's a real emergency, so we pay it. Just like in that analogy, volatility traders can pay more for buying immediate protection, or they can pay less to buy protection out a month or two. Right now investors are saying they don't see any reason to have immediate protection. That can change in an instant for sure, but for now anyone holding TVIX is paying for the emergency room when they maybe should have waited to see the doctor.
