ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)

[Porgie Tirebiter]

You aren't clear on the time frame, but assuming you bought in early Oct. 2012 (the last time ARR traded around $7.34) you've managed to work your basis down to $5.45/share. If you bought earlier than that, your number is even lower.

We already know you have another 50¢ coming in 2014, so now you're down to $4.95 by the end of 2014.

So the question becomes one of ARR being able to reach $5 again. I personally don't see why it can't. You need to pay close attention to the Treasury yield curve, and events which may lead to it's flattening out. Right now the spread between 5 yr. and 30 yr. is a little more than 200 basis points. Should that widen, I could see ARR regaining some share price. But keep in mind that the spread is at historically high levels right now. If the demand for those short bonds begins to dry up and yields rise, ARR could get hit pretty hard.

Soooo... Good luck with it!