Re: MDMN Weekend Discussion February 22/23, 2014
By: Mariner78
I will start this on a somewhat personal note – through the late fall and into the beginning of this year, I have been foundering for the proper word or idea to describe the experience that I had been going through as a result of waiting and waiting and waiting for this particular cow to come home. Then it finally hit me – I felt like the title character in “A Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich” – stuck in a gulag of unrelenting dismal circumstances with no idea of when we might experience some relief. I have to admit that in the past few weeks, with the continual moving of the goal posts right up until the very end of all of this process, I thought it might never end. Then we get the SHM announcement. Huzzah !! And that is followed by the Friday night update. I can’t describe it as a glorious announcement of everything we had hoped and dreamed it would be, but it’s a &?&!!@ good start on the way to where we want to be and between the SHM and the formal announcement that “a representative of the company” will be traveling starting on Feb 26th, it is very hard not to conclude that we are well on our way to a formal announcement within 2 or at the outside, 3 weeks. I’m thinking sometime in the first week in March, but that’s just my guess. I will give it to the Ides before I start to go back into “gulag prisoner mode”.
OK, so having said this as a preamble, I’m very pleased to see an update about the ADL with some actual reporting in it. The details about the consolidation of the mining claims through the end of 2013 and the subsequent payment of various items in January of this year were certainly welcome bits of news and go a long way toward explaining why we had so many dates where we all anticipated a deal announcement that never came. We are, finally, very close to an announcement and we have a much better idea of what has been holding us up for many months, and (although they don’t actually say so) that there is probably precious little left to do before signing a deal and announcing it (otherwise, why would we be sending someone to S.America).
To reiterate - For me, the key things are 1) they explained to some extent what the hold-up was for all these months, 2) they advised specific travel dates to S.America next week “to conduct corporate business”, 3) they basically reaffirmed that, although we have been operating on a slow bell, we are still moving ahead with the chosen partner. Importantly, they made the following statement in the update: “We will report the issues and produce the contract(s) publicly when completed.” They are now on record that there will be a public disclosure of the contract terms when they are done. They did not hedge at all about this. (OK, it’s our guys and when have they ever said anything without having their fingers crossed behind their backs – but this is a very unequivocal, public statement in an official written communication, so I’m willing to give it a little more weight than some of the things we heard coming out of the mouths of Greg and Larry at the last SHM). All this is very good. And (as I stated just above) taken all together, I think it says that there will be a signed and announced deal within the next two weeks. We'll see, but for once this is setting up fairly nicely.
As to share price, I would think that this news will at the very least provide some better support and we should start to move up just a bit from here. I think the danger of dropping below.04 is now off the table, and I daresay that this might even get us back above the .05 level. I know, the MMs and shorts are in control, the update didn't say we were done and didn't say when it was likely we'd be done, so what if our guys are traveling - it means nothing, etc. This was a great update, given the fact that they couldn't tell us much. I believe the market will take it as such. I don’t think that an update was expected by anyone outside of the MP community – we have gone for so long without hearing anything that why should this particular time be different and another week passes without any kind of news from the company despite the fact that we heard strong reports that something was coming. Who could blame anyone for treating the oft-repeated rumors that we’d be getting something “this week” with a very healthy dose of skepticism? Well, finally our team got a first down, and there is now some clarity (OK, a very little bit) as to what’s about to transpire and when. At least a scenario that is now within the realm of likely or highly likely. So with this in hand, I would think that HR’s update next week is going to look a whole lot better. We should finally see a reversal in the relentless hammering of our share price. The Friday update is, without a doubt, a clear shifting of the winds in our favor.
Keep the faith. Deliverance is at hand. I feel better about this now than I have for several weeks (i.e, since before expecting something for the Christmas holidays). We are on our way....
M78
