Agree with most of what you say . . . except we are already in stagflation (both deflation and inflation in certain sectors and products together at same time). There is actually no recovery: cut food stamps, medical cost and programs higher priced (my doctors did not lose profits increase), unemployment assistance not extended, and no election year infrastructure contracts and jobs). USA is barely standing still (economically). QE-X money is primping the stock market. Most do not realize ObombACare is replacement for QE withdrawal (a little smarter though . . . actually some new jobs and good for average citizen without health care now). Automotive sales going down and its not all weather related. If auto sales increase . . . it will be by no money down, 60-90 month loan contracts . . . the vehicle is toast by the time the high interest loan contract is paid off and they just give you a new vehicle and roll the next car contract back to zero. Pesto . . we have lifetime debt slavery.
USA cannot afford inflation as higher inflation will bust the budget (less taxes will cover it). Advanced countries now use stagflation strategy, so they can do both at once (whats not to like), with rolling sector peaks and sell-offs. This is the big 'improvement' over the 1930's climb out of Depression fix. You just keep the 'float' up in the air, and move it from sector-to-sector. And, take out the visible inflation by cutting back which data you compare to.
Hl will do fine, as its a defense stock . . . all modern equipment is full of gold and silver. Even China will want HL producing metals and minerals.
Hl stock price gets too high soon and it will turn down due to counter options strategy poker . . . PMs, currencies, oil and whatever is at 52 week high (like Tesla and Google and MSFT).
USA is run by folks that are doing just find . . . but collectively the country is failing to replace itself and more and more mouths to feed. These are smart cookies . . . they think so.
History stories lacked electronic currency creation and the idea of propping up the stock market with QE-Xs and massive roll-overs of personal credit + dereviatives float 24/7 as massive off-books accounting. Lets hope that is enough to prevent another severe 'Recession' drop. 1930's WPA actually built stuff in USA and hired the unemployed (now they just give them fake currency and food stamps). We also have another historic 100 year war to keep everything greased (continual destroy-and-rebuilt policy). No war here . . . so contracts benefit goes overseas as one-way deposits . . . and if you build overseas plants . . . lowered domestic USA taxes. That is why big boys and girls want domestic Natural Gas for USA use and then we can continue to ship our petro products and profits out of the country. Overseas wars keep the profits flowing and the domestic economy 'with a foot on its throat'. We never really get to recover: just bump along . . . no one is this poor at national pump priming. They should make a movie called CONGRESS . . . and all the actors spend time twittering and looking in the air or down at their feet.
Yeller is magic act . . . take with one hand ($10 Billion/month QE roll-back) and the other hand (stage assistance) Obomb Care picks it up. What is upsetting world economy in this process is the 10 Bills are staying in USA domestic health care industry and not going to overseas transfers. Overseas is now forced to buy into USA stock market ( domestic health care industry up-cost effect), if they want some of our magic act.
Forget the T-Bill interest . . . buy the USA stock Indexs . . . the new act in town.
History buffs have a saying . . . it does repeat itself but never in the same way . . . exactly. Technology changes the story content emphasis?
Short story: human don't change . . . things change and the way they effect us.
Technology brings us repeatedly 'out-of-the-woods', but we are still animal brained. Go to a tavern and observe.
