Biotech Values

[LongRun8]

ENTA questions:

Dew, I am long ENTA and have a few questions that I was hoping you (or others who feel like chiming in) might be able to help me with.

QUESTION 1:
I was wondering what you think the inherent value of ENTA's future HCV pipeline is. For example, ABT-493/ABT-530 combo; EDP-239; Cyclophilin (CYP) inhibitor; and the NS5B inhibitor. Dew, I have seen your share price valuation for ENTA (message #171343), so I know of the monetary value that you ascribe to some of ENTA's pipeline (at least for early 2015); but without really looking at a dollar amount per se and also looking a lot further down the road, which factors do you see as truly giving value to their future HCV therapies?

I have been thinking about it a little bit lately and have come up with some ideas but was wondering about your take on it. Do you see the value of their future HCV pipeline attributed to any of the below or do you assign value to it based on some other factors that I haven't been able to come up with?

1. Resistance - their future HCV treatments might be able to address future resistance to theirs or GILD's all-oral txs.
2. Answer to expiring exclusivity/emergence of generics - maybe the true value is related to this so that when ABT-450/ABT-267/ABT-333 combo OR ABT-450/ABT-267 combo loses its exclusivity, it has some new brands that will have exclusivity while they lose out to generics.
3. ? 100% SVR - maybe they can make a combo pill that has all of their mechanisms of action in it, which might be able to achieve near 100% SVR for most genotypes. For example, either their first-gen 3-DAA or 2-DAA combo OR second-gen 3-DAA or 2-DAA combo PLUS their CYP inhibitor PLUS their NS5B inhibitor.
4. Milestone payments - maybe the most value of their future HCV pipeline comes from milestones. This scenario suggests that the products won't be taken to market and stopped short at some investigational phase or ENTA gets bought out before those drugs go to market
5. Higher asking price in a buyout - maybe the true value of their future HCV pipeline goes only to fetch a higher share price buyout. Again this scenario assumes that these products won't get to market before a buyout is completed.

QUESTION 2:
What is likelihood in your mind that FDA denies GILD’s 8-week tx for non-cirrhotics based on lower SVRs and their concern it could lead to resistance? If a denial for this happens it would adversely affect GILD’s pricing/labeling strategy of using that shorter regimen to gain the cost savings that the public wants (i.e. rather than having to bring down the high cost of their 12-week tx).

QUESTION 3:
Any timeline on when PhI might be done with EDP-788?

My apologies if you or others have discussed any of the above items in earlier threads here; I have a free iHub account and can't search posts for key words.

Thanks in advance.