What amazes me is the ultimate gullibility and acceptance in the past of all the bs that was fed to the friends of the BOD. Knowing full well that a pink sheet company usually does not stand to be scrutinized there were all sorts of methods and carefully crafted messages that the BOD was able to freely disseminate to the public through friendly channels.
Lest I be accused of Monday morning quarterbacking, in retrospect, and even at the time I heard these ridiculous announcements, I always felt these wild messages that were floated out there , were incredulous. I would shake my head in disbelief and made private comments at most of what I was hearing from my sources to my sources. In almost every instance, I would be shot down as I would respond with my sense of skepticism. In deference to the esteem in which I held my sources, I would bow my head and accept what I heard. Trust me it was and is no consolation to later hear from my sources that I was right. I wanted to be wrong. There was no gain in being right and staring at wall paper peal during my holding period.
The above as a background, not a complaint, due to the predictability of the methodology of the BOD, which is based on the BOD's historical actions/behavior, below please find the following assumptions:
1. The announcement of a fully completed, fully notarized, fully executed, fully or even reasonably funded, fully compliant in every respect to contractually adherent terms with proper contractually crafted covenants with a partner is off the table. The BOD will provide all sorts of spins on an agreement, but will fall short of a contract with a partner that is totally bullet proof, and that will withstand the review and acceptance of most legally binding and sound contractual terms. There will be certain holes and cracks in an agreement between the parties to the agreement. This is how it has been. I find no reason to believe things are any different today.
2. The agreement will have clauses that will allow for delays in funding, deployment of resources, start of major exploration to the end of certain discovery of reserves as defined by either US guidelines or 43-101 standards.
3. The BOD will throw bones at the shareholders, apologies included, in order to deflect their attention from the usual and standard modus operandi that shareholders have come to expect from this incapable group. This has partially been accomplished with the gift of 30% of shares from JJ's private reserve.
4. The AGM will be attended by disgruntled shareholders who will make all attempts at holding fire to the heels of the BOD, but will fail to extract certain assurances from the BOD that the future will provide much by way of
real and discernible change in company actions to monetize the holdings.
5. The meeting will end in a positive tone, and most shareholders will come away from the meeting feeling as though much has been accomplished and there is much more great news to come.
6. SP will deteriorate further prior to the AGM, but will find bottom as the perception of a value play will override all reason and caution and buyers will make certain the SP does not fall beyond a certain point. Fortunately, this stock has more technical predictability than most pink sheet stocks, so it will find support at a perceived low and with a surge in volume around the week or days prior to and post AGM, the stock will rally.
7. If the rally is supported by more than a technical and psychological bounce, meaning, supported by fundamentals then the rally will be sustained and the SP can and will rally to new highs. But if my assumptions are accurate, then the rally will fizzle due to profit taking on huge volume and the SP will again drop, even slowly, to the newly created support levels, to eventually find new 52 week lows.
8. If my assumptions are accurate, then for future trading and predictable points of entry in anticipation of profitable bullish plays will be out the door. In my umble opinion if the BOD talks the talk but delivers the same, this stock will be a great short. (safe assumption)
If anyone cares to complete this top ten list, I have deliberately left the last two of the top ten list du jour for anyone who cares to opine. Please feel free to do so.
As a post script, let me add that I wish to be wrong in my assumptions above. I have much to gain by being wrong and a lot to lose if my assumptions are true. So here is to a memorable and a fireworks filled AGM.
