Galectin Therapeutics Inc. (GALT)

[thefamilyman]

Others items of note in the ICPT to GALT comparison:
1) The GALT study we are waiting on is technically a Phase 1 while the results that fueled the recent explosion for ICPT were from a Phase 2, however...
2) Due to the patient criteria and "secondary" outcomes that are being tested in that Phase 1, GALT should have as good (or better) efficacy data from that Phase 1 than ICPT got from their Phase 2. (The caveat being that GALT's Phase 1 has a much smaller number of patients being tested.)
3) The ICPT drug has to be taken every day, possibly forever. (The patients in their Phase 2 took the drug for 72 weeks.)
4) It is not clear (at least to me) whether the improvements seen in the ICPT Phase 2 will actually result in a reversal of the fibrosis. It may be that it just slows, but does not stop, disease progression.
5) If GALT's drug actually reverses fibrosis in humans as it did in animals, why would there ever be a need for ICPT's drug?

If GALT's drug works, we should see that $7.5 billion market cap in short order. However that would just be the beginning because the value proposition of a drug that reverses fibrosis is MUCH more than $7.5 billion... IMHO.

Biotech said...

Exactly correct.

ICPT market cap $7.5B
GALT market cap $296M

GALT potentially has a best in class drug, at which time the market cap should be at least that of ICPT

Current share price $16
Best in Class multiplier: 25X (7.5/.296)
Best in Class Price Estimate: $400

At these prices, even a 10% probability of achieving Best in Class status means a $40 price and the probability is much higher than that.