Intel Corp (INTC)

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“We think 20nm, if it does go into volume production, it will not be in 2014. Potentially 2015 and maybe 2016,” he said."

But he also said:

>> Frankly, whether 20nm will be big or not will really depend on two customers: one is Qualcomm and the other is Apple.”

To me, there is little doubt that these two will be the major force pushing TSMC 20nm into volume production, and potentially the two that help TSMC to push 16nm into volume production. It's really a huge amount of leverage. The process needs large customers to push volumes and lower costs. With these large customers, everyone will benefit - and without them, everyone will lose.

Intel's strategic bet is to start ramping enough volume in 2014 (sacrificing margins to do it) so that TSMC has less wafer start requests, and cannot ramp the process. It's a high-stakes gamble for everyone involved, and the capital needed to ante-up will mean that there will be big winners, and big losers....