Apple Inc (AAPL)

[ASimEE]

But with a strike of 600, you are still 15 bucks out of the money, and who knows what the MM's will do with that. It may run to 600, but than again, it may not.

Yep. And if those 600 strike options don't close in the money, they could lose 50% or more of their value just due to the implied volatility crush.

IV is high right now due to earnings report expectations which pumps up options price. After earnings release the IV drops and option price loses value fast, even if the underlying stock price is going up. I learned this lesson the hard way last year.

So far this year I have only traded vertical call and put spreads. Profit is capped, but it is much less risky "bet" than straight long calls or short puts. Spreads also cancel out the implied volatility factor in options pricing so it does not affect you as much. Thinking of even putting a straddle near AAPL's closing price on Monday to capture any big moves to the upside or downside.

I'll take several small wins (200-500% profit) over a lottery ticket play anyday.