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Re: mas post# 127822

Saturday, 01/18/2014 8:39:38 PM

Saturday, January 18, 2014 8:39:38 PM

Post# of 151836

Agree. They have lost all sense of balance.



Hmmm...let's recap the facts, shall we?

Positives
- Intel's 14-nanometer process is likely to be superior to TSMC's/Samsung's, and producttts will be available earlier than theirs
- PC market may not be as dead as expected
- Intel is likely to continue to take PC share from AMD, buoying the PCCG segment/improving margins
- SSG is finally (barely) profitable


Negatives
- Merrifield is late and under-dressed for the smartphone market (no integrated modem, no dice)
- Bay Trail's BoM is too rich to be competitive with profit
- Android systems powered by Bay Trail not coming until Q2
- 5,000+ people losing their jobs
- DCG growth nowhere near what was expected, troubling signs for 2014 as guidance was informally lowered (!)
- SSNLF and QCOM becoming more powerful by the day
- Gross margins significantly down from 2010/2011 levels
- Fab 42 mothballed as management wildly misread the market
- SoFIA, Intel's high volume tablet/phone runner for 2015, will be built at TSMC because the team failed to port this IP to 22nm.
- Quark is a bloated pig
- 20nm parts likely to cream Intel's 22nm attempts in mobile
- Intel had guided to $5.5B+ in sales during 2013 for OIA - came in at $4B, and we'll see $4B again in 2014.

That about cover it? Intel as an investment has been a disaster unless you're playing for 3.5-4.5% yield in a historical bull market.

We buy stocks for one reason and one reason alone: to outperform the market. Intel has been a very poor vehicle for doing so for many years, and until it can get its act together and start posting some revenue/earnings growth, it will continue to be.
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