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Friday, January 17, 2014 2:16:41 AM
I have been asked both publicly and privately to provide an opinion on FITX as a whole. Here it is, I will try to be objective as possible. Previous posts have links to as much DD as you could possibly want.
If everything goes well and all the hype is believed then the stock in 6-7 years COULD be worth between .40 - 4.00 based on a P/E of 10 - 100 and a margin of 80%.
Here is how that would have to unfold.
Permits would be filed for electrical substation and holding tanks. And this waved through.
Construction would start in late March/April after the weather warms (yes there is a building but that is not enough)
The holding tanks, heating systems, lighting and substation requirements completed prior to November so there can be an inspection.
License Application to Health Canada applied for 2015.
First growth starts March/April 2015 and harvest August. Probably a scratch growth.
First sales April 2016.
NO one else gets permitted. Only the current three and FITX.
The "security" transport company would have to own a truck at that point
...
Any faster timeline I can't even fathom is possible.
The US market will only open up if Canada allows exports which it has stated it won't until the Federal Law is repealed. I don't see this likely in the next 2 years so sales would just be off Medical Marijuana in Canada. So basing the revenues off of mr "Bill" Chaaban's statements that is how I reached the numbers above.
But, what I think is more likely to happen is in the stock will be diluted. A lot.
The MM's will continue control the stock price and there will be random peaks but overall the price will retract. That is just my opinion. Pot stocks are particularly emotional things at this point and it is possible that just shear love of ganja will keep this stock afloat BUT if that happens the MM's that hold most shares or so will no longer find the long/short hedge profitable and will dump. There will be a lot of those Thursday 1pm crashes.
In the whole sector there is only one company that has decent people in control and a viable future in my opinion. There are many in the private sector but not in the public sector.
On a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being a scam and 10 being a solid company this stock would not even get a number.
I can't believe any of the hype.
The previous enterprise this organization attempted included people like this:
http://www.mmamania.com/2011/9/23/2444614/musclepharm-executive-vp-leonard-armenta-resigns-in-wake-of-ufc-135
And no person involved has ever successfully run a business. The CEO has a failed law firm and a failed company. His associates are unsuccessful at previous business ventures. They funding is spurious. The CEO has already misled Forbes with statements.
The logistics don't make sense either to grow where they are located. Ignoring, the people involved with the ownership of the property and previous business dealings. And at best FITX will be 2-3 years behind the three current vendors and the OTC dispensaries so I doubt they will even get much market share.
If they had a botanist or horticulturist on staff that might give some credence to any of this. But, the company is a bunch of personal trainers, failed business owners, a failed pharmacist, and a bunch of people trying to raise Windsor and Essex County out of the position it is in. Having one of the highest unemployment rates in Canada. Parts are 25%.
I mean I would be happy if anyone associated with this had a resume online that wasn't created recently.
Pot is an extremely valuable tax addition and because of that I think the market place is the right one to get rich. Eventually, the stigma of it will be surpassed by the need for the revenue from it. But, personally I would invest in a small grower in Oregon or Washington.
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