Intel Corp (INTC)

[walbert]

"In economics the question is whether people will buy it. And the answer is quite clearly yes as TSMC already has a whole pile of customers lined up for 16nm in 2015."

[Once again, you are missing the point. The point is that even if they make it and even if they sell it to the ARM shops, the ARM shops then have to try to market against better performing, significantly less expensive Intel-based products. Sure, the ARM shops will have to buy it, but the increased costs still have to work they way up the food chain to the consumers. And consumers will have better choices.

TSMC still has to make it, still has to make it in volume and still has to make it to 2015. None of these are assured.]

"I really doubt there is anything Intel can do that others can't match, the main question is how quickly they can do it, i.e. when not if. If TSMC really do deliver on 10nm at double the density compared to 16nm with risk production in 2016 and volume in 2017 like they seem to be saying are we really certain it won't be economic?"

[The ARM foundries don't have three years to get their act together. They are being crushed by their CapEx needs now and have been for years. TSMC's dividends have exceeded their free cash flow for all of the last four years.]