22nd Century Group Inc (XXII)

[Justfactsmam]

Dan...Pete gave the "very bullish" summary and it was well done, but IMHO you sobered it up a bit and hit the bottom line with:

1. "It seems to me that you completely ignore the capacity of human beings and GOVERNMENT to foul things up. Also events often CONSPIRE to frustrate our plans (the "Black Swan")."

IMHO...there will not be any VLN designation for at least 4 years when the FDA completes its study. (And the time factor IMO is absolutely ridiculous for a smoke cessation test..which leads me to believe big tobacco is involved...there is too much money at risk for them not to be.) But the market is not just U.S. and I would argue bigger outside U.S. for VLN, esp. China (where BT is big) where Tobacco companies MUST list Nicotine levels on pack.

2. "Key near term events for XXII are approval to begin making cigarettes, the actual initiating of production, and the up-listing of the stock so that it becomes possible for institutions to buy. I will not count these as done until they are, in fact, done. Nothing here is a foregone conclusion, but the odds do seem to be on our side."

Again..IMHO moving forward with MSA and manufacturing is a big plus, even without VLN...and I believe it will be done without the right to publicize VLN. And yes, no "Counting chickens before the eggs hatch" is prudent. (We have already been down that road with one of our Big 3)

3. "One big danger I see flows from the valuation of XXII. The current valuation is tiny, which allows room for huge percentage appreciation, but also restricts XXII's financial resources. In the event of a challenge to XXII's patents and prolonged litigation, it seems to me that XXII might lack the resources for a long fight. Remember, patents are not self executing. They have to be asserted and defended in court, often at great expense."

True...but you are ignoring BT and the sizeable investment made already...they would be the obvious partner, or if they are the violators, then any other big tobacco would fund ... against BT. (assuming patents solid).


Interesting 20 bagger scenario I invested in 11 years ago... a true David and Goliath... (you would see XXII vs. A BIG TOBACCO) http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/25/business/roche-moves-to-settle-dispute-with-igen-by-buying-it.html
ROCHE ended up buying Igen, then plus spun off for IGEN shareholders a new company with their entire patent portfolio, less a perpetual license for Roche...and funded them $147M dollars). Worth the 6 month wait.