InvestorsHub Logo
Followers 50
Posts 2249
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 04/18/2013

Re: None

Friday, 12/27/2013 7:23:18 PM

Friday, December 27, 2013 7:23:18 PM

Post# of 36237
The longest week of my life...!

This wait for 2014 to roll around is just dragggggiiiiinnnnnnggggg on and on. I wish it would hurry up and get here already. I think we are in store for some news either the 2nd or possibly the beginning of the following week on the 6th.

I see no reason why the CEO, who has been fairly conservative in all that he has done, would risk laying out $40 grand to Wall Street Branding unless this was a sure thing and happening soon...Very soon!

I like in his FB response how he said:

the signature of the PPA would be a multi level release we would highlight at any and all possible opportunity.



They plan on hammering this and they know to keep the news flowing to keep the share price running. Great thing with this promotion is it is not fluff, but a real $300,000,000 deal that only uses a small fraction of the companies available resources (i.e. their land).

This is certainly not a company anyone should be worried about being a bagholder in as the next round of PPA's may be much larger and will come faster once the infrastructure is in place. The faster turnaround is according to the CEO in an email he sent me (I believe I shared it here a few weeks ago).

Based on the fact that this deal uses roughly 6% of their available land, the other 94% (assuming all things were the same and all land was used) could equal an additional $4,700,000,000 in future electricity deals with the Costa Rican government.

I don't know that they'll ever have contracts for all their land, but even if they only used 25% of the remaining land we'd still be looking at additional 20 year revenues of $1,175,000,000!

Add that to our current $300,000,000 20 year deal and we are talking about $1,475,000,000, which divided by 20 gets us gross revenues in the staggering amount of $73,750,000. Not too shabby for a stock that currently trades in the .01 to .02 range.

Doing a little more math using the $300,000,000 deal we are currently awaiting. We know there is a 4% cost for the land = $12,000,000, the equipment (turbines, generators, etc) will cost $60,000,000 and interest on the loan would be roughly the same amount of $60,000,000 (not sure of all loan terms, so best guess) probably some sort of maintenance agreement which I'll guesstimate at $12,000,000 (which could be way high, but figured 50k a month) totaling $144,000,000 leaving $156,000,000 after all the major expenses.

I'm sure there will be other expenses along the way like salaries, legal, travel, etc. I have no idea how much those might be, but even if the 3 employees paid themselves a total of $1,000,000 a year in salaries, we'd still have $136,000,000 left over. Divide that by 20 years and this .01-.02 penny stock has roughly $6,800,000 a year rolling in after all major expenses are paid...Pretty darn impressive...

Now, simply take that $6,800,000 and multiply it by how many more similar deals they can make. Based on the current amount of land they have available it would be maxed out at roughly 15 more deals similar to this one. Assuming 3 more deals 6.8mil becomes $27,200,000; 7 more deals $54,000,000; 11 more deals $81,600,000; all available land in use becomes $106,000,000 per year after all major expenses.

Whewwww...feel free to correct me if you spotted any errors, I started to get a bit cross eyed with all the zeros:)

Back to our current deal, assuming $6,800,000 per year after major expenses is close to the net number (if you disagree, then cut the number in half or use whatever percentage you want) we're talking about .049 eps at a 15 PE, which I think is fair for this company considering future growth opportunities, we're talking about a $0.73 share price on just the first and, my guess, smallest deal:)

Of course, that's based on our current share structure which I know is going to change from its current 139mil OS so I'll leave any adjustments to that number up to the individual reader as no one knows for sure how many shares will need to be sold.

There are so many ways to figure the math and we won't know for sure until the first earnings start rolling out, but one thing is for sure, no matter how you do the math this stock is going up, up, up in value soon.

Short term spike (BIG one) with overall long term price appreciation is my guess (the long term part is rare in this neck of the woods). Traders and investors stand to make some good money here. How much and how fast remains to be seen, but I see no way to lose at these prices.

I truly believe the CEO was correct when he said the company is looking for a $3.00 share price and a move to a bigger board. If these PPA's keep comin' this stock will easily get there...I hope they handle this promotion wisely... (I'm sure they will)

GLTA and of course this is all my opinion,
TraderGreen
Join InvestorsHub

Join the InvestorsHub Community

Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.