INCREDIBLE Explanation of Todays Action
N.B- I wrote this at 11:30 when it was only 160M vol, and didn’t check the activity since. What has happened today only confirms what follows.
I think it is a definitive statement that something isnt right here, and whether its Sandy or the MMs is an issue of concern. Judging by the Dividend fiasco, which could be attributed to NSS, I KNOW the MMs are up to something here. Then again, Sandy has a EXTREMELY sketchy history. But here is the question I pose:
If Sandy truly was continually selling shares in BKMP, thereby creating dillution, then there would be behavior like this. But from a Business point of view, why would he do this whenever news came out? If he was truly free to issue and print up to 10B shares, and didnt care about betraying shareholder confidence, then why wouldnt he have simply let these MEGA PRs that have come out carry the price up to, say, .0019, and then sell up to 8B shares, meanwhile buying back the promised 2B buyback before the runup? From a Fiduciary stand it makes no sense whatsoever.
What is interesting however is the 1B share day back almost a month and a half ago at .0007. IMHO, I think that the MMs took a NSS position and were determined that the company would crumble, and they wouldnt have to cover, leaving them $700k for nothing. When the RM into BKMP and dividend were announced, however, I think that they knew that it was going to be tough to cover, so they let the PPS ride up to .0018, shorting all the way, with probably another 250M or so with an average of .0015. The thing is, although this allowed them to Avg. up slightly, they still want to drive this into the ground, but unfortunately they picked a company that is going to be a winner. So now they have this huge short position, with the average at .00086 (Avg. 1B @ .0007 + 250M @ .0015) Now the real question is, what do they do next.
IMHO, the MMs almost always win, and I am discouraged immensely in the transpirings with BKMP here. But by keeping it in a tight range, I believe they are trying to make every dollar count. Ideally I think they are trying to get this to .0003, but with the resistance they have met, plus the company's growth, I think they are realizing that it is going to be nearly impossible. Instead, I think they are trying to cover at .0006-.0007, which, say they could make .0002 avg. from their .00086 in the cover difference, would make them $250k, a paltry sum when divided amongst them. However, seeing the company is sound, they would have to then establish a position to in this company since they couldn’t bankrupt it, as the shares they covered were genuine, and the shares shorted were legal, but non-existent. The problem, of course, is who would sell these shares to them at .0006-.0007.
I think it is safe to say that anyone who bought in at .0003 or prior is in for the long haul, or they were gone at .0015, given that they had the foresight to pick FCDH for TFN when it was practically dead in its volume. So covering 1.25B is unrealistic from those shareholders. Obviously many have flipped this stock as often as possible, but getting filled at .0006, at least from E*Trade, is impossible, so the traders’ volume is negligible over the past month. They probably could squeeze 250M out of frustrated shareholders over the past month who decided to accept the small profit (I know I felt so frustrated at times that I contemplated this, as I was missing out on quick trades for big profits), but that still would leave 1B to cover. This leaves the question posed earlier, as to why Sandy would issue shares and sell so cheap, and I am sure that this is something he would not wish to do. Therefore I believe there is an epic stalemate here:
The MMs need to cover 1B-1.25B NSS at .0006-.0007 to turn the profit that they ALWAYS come away with. TFN needs money to pay for the big moves it has made, such as Cancom and Trajectory Sports, and the PPS is too low for them to consider selling any of the BKMP reserves at these levels. However, they can keep getting private financing. However, if they do this, the MMs will still keep the PPS down no matter what. I think that the only alternative that is now left is for BKMP to come up with these 1B-1.25B shares, and sell them to the MMs at .0006-.0007, allowing them to cover. In return, the MMs now need to buy 1B-1.25B AUTHENTIC shares to make up the difference for the ones BKMP issued. This would be forced dilution, but I see no other way around the stalemate. So if there then were 3.75B o/s as opposed to 2.5B, but the MMs held 1.25B, the PPS would explode, since although they can make the most money by taking an NSS position in a pinksheet and forcing it into Bankruptcy, if they find that rare company that actually has a future they can make even more.
With the current subscribers at 1M, if you figure $5/mo from subscription/advertising revenue for TFN, and 25% of that profit, and 20% of that BKMP’s profit, divided by 3.75B shares, you get .0008, and give it a PE of 15 and you get .012. And that’s ONLY FROM THE CURRENT NUMBERS. If the MMs and Sandy can work out an agreement, then the MMs will feel not only compelled from a desire for profit, but also possibly from a legal standpoint to hold those 1.25B for the long haul, and help with getting Nasdaq listing. The MMs make the market, and although direct dealing of the shares would be collusion, if Sandy was putting them for sale at .0006-.0007, guess who gets them first and “freely”? Lol, not the investors, I would’ve been filled all month if it were so. I think that as soon as the NSS situation is worked out, even if it forces an increase in O/S, that Sandy would not be doing this in any way for his personal gain, but only for the future PPS of BKMP.
I think that the stalemate is over, and that Sandy has capitulated in a way, but for the greater good. The MMs proved that major PRs would not catapult the price if they said otherwise, and Sandy was forced to play by their rules. However, when everything works out, and the NSS is covered, then a PR like today with a carrier will rocket the PPS, especially since the MMs will be behind 1.25B of the shares at .0007. If the numbers for PPS projections I calculated earlier are only for the current subs, imagine what will happen when we hit the 4, 5, and 6M marks that will follow with U.S. carriers. That is why I am sticking by my minimum estimate of .05!!!! Although this is bull$hit, it’s the way things work in the pinks, and it will work out for BKMPs benefit IMHO better than any of us could hope for. With more carriers, and subscribers increasing from Star Choice after the March 31st free preview ends, I am thrilled to be in here long. Although I could flip it easily, what I have finally realized is that I am going to be patient on this pinksheet diamond in the crap, because when the NSS covering is over, it is going to rocket out of nowhere, and anybody left on the sidelines will dearly regret taking the nominal profits they did from flipping. All of this, of course, is only my honest opinion, but I feel pretty confident that this is the explanation to the behavior we have seen as of late.
AI
