Bravada International Ltd (BRAV)

[thatguy157]

Some Late Night Brav Thoughts

I saw some Margins Dropping off on some Big Retail Company's reports and future guidance so I looked a little further into some retail company's current "deals." Now one has to know that major retailers (or any business) have the ability to float inventory and cost from one quarter to the next for whatever reason they deem necessary.

Abercrombie %50 off entire store
http://www.abercrombie.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/StoreView?storeId=10051&kid=012a7a94-f4c9-7b28-124d-0000424a45aa&langId=-1&catalogId=10901&cmp=PDS:092111ANFGBTM&gclid=CJy6l8-xu7sCFed0Qgod4WIAWQ

Gap %40 off entire store
http://www.gap.com/browse/home.do?tid=gogobue8t&kwid=1&ap=7&sem=true&mkwid=pXUPCi4Z_dc&adid=Tnc&creative=35574964875&adpos=1t1

Express up to %50 off
http://www.express.com/?creative=31442354596&adpos=1t1&CID=2680&device=c&network=g&matchtype=e&gclid=CO_P_8yyu7sCFUWCfgod4SEAzg

Chicos %30 off
http://www.chicos.com/store/home.jsp?CMP=KNC-GOOG_BRAND&searchdef=2243318&k_clickid=012a7a94-f4c9-7b28-124d-0000424a45aa&002=2243318&006=21079297117&007=Search&008=&009=e&012=chicos&021=44516762410&025=c&026=

JCP 20% off
http://www.jcpenney.com/index.jsp?cm_mmc=google%20trademark-_-g_jcp_official_site-_-g_jcpenney_exact-_-jcp&gclid=CJ7ZkKKzu7sCFY9gfgodRR8AXg

H&M %70 off
http://www.hm.com/us?cm_mmc=adwords-_-us-_-brand-_-h%20%26%20m&gclid=CPLpx5O2u7sCFYN_QgodMQIAig

Forever 21 %50 off
http://www.forever21.com/Product/Main.aspx?br=f21

I really do not think the retail industry is doing as well as being led on in the posts on this board while pointing the finger at Danny. I think some might want to give some validity to what Danny is saying about discretionary spending in the fashion industry among consumers. The Q3 numbers may have been down from last year, but I do not think that we are losing any market share in the industry of women's leggings (that is kind of a big deal in the whole Stock Market thingy). VivaVuva.com only has market share to gain since the recent launch.

Now I get that companies do discounts during the holiday shopping season (marketing). The usual is to mark up the original price and then discount that mark up which would not effect their profit margins because of the discount derived from ordering larger quantity. This is not evident in a lot of retailers Q3 profit margin reports and Q4 guidance.

I will post some links, since the housing market has been coming back I think a lot of discretionary spending has been put back into households upgrades and even auto sales (all of which factor into retail consumer spending reports).

First link is to how high the market is going verse the Profit Warnings.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101268344

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/12/12/november-retail-sales/3996205/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-12/retail-sales-in-u-s-rose-in-november-by-most-in-five-months.html

Notice the Facts in this link for consumer spending during Q3 2013 (July, Aug, Sept). This just shows a little validity to what Danny has been saying.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/retail-sales-in-u-s-increased-more-than-forecast-in-october.html

Remember Q3 fall off in sales? Just maybe (hard for some to believe here) that Danny was telling the truth about discretionary spending. I think the Alexa rankings were very accurate for Brav but the site visits verse conversions to sales dropped off from previous levels. I don't think less people are visiting the sites than before, but I think the discretionary spending for retail clothing has been less prioritized than before. When the economy was struggling people would buy clothing before a car. When the economy is coming back than they will buy a car or home improvements before fashion clothing initially because of the flash of confidence in future wealth. I think we are seeing that transition and makes an opportunity for investing in any fashion retail company (or any industry that is effected by economic circumstance) that has a great percentage of their market share. There markets may have been falsely deflated do to a fall of in revenue but not market share because of discretionary spending in their particular industry. This makes the company an investment opportunity if they can survive and strive during the economic circumstance at hand.

When looking at a stock and a company, one needs to look at the market (industry as a whole) before passing judgment.

I just thought I would share some of my thinking and assessment of Bravada's performance as relative to the retail market. Investments make a substantial amount of my annual income, and maybe things are not as black and white as they seem on a message board.

GLTA
GO BRAV


I don't dissect one company upon valuation of one report in their sectors lowest tradition quarter. I look at the industry as a whole. Hey I cant spell or do proper grammar either, but I can do arithmetic like a champ.