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Re: ibc post# 126155

Friday, 12/13/2013 5:38:13 PM

Friday, December 13, 2013 5:38:13 PM

Post# of 151749

Instead of 'short them all with max leverage'.... Why not simply just 'reduce exposure' in light of this low-probability / high-risk scenario.



My thesis hasn't yet played out, so why would I reduce exposure?

Bottom line is, I don't think I've ever seen you post a single positive thing about Intel here on these boards which leads me to believe that you are bearish on the company's future prospects. Yes, I realize there are some real risks to Intel's future (I complained at length about the Bay Trail fiasco and the Merrfield failure), and yes, I do realize that things are probably going to be bad throughout 2014 (and we will get many more of these rumors/bad events), but at the same time I like to see things through to their logical conclusion.

If I'm right, Intel trades as a $35-$40 stock, is earning >$3/share in EPS and is dropping a dividend of $1.2/share in my account (5.5% yield on my non-dividend adjusted cost) within a few years w/ potential dividend growth commensurate with earnings growth there.

If I'm wrong, and in mid-2015 Broxton is a POS, then I sell out probably at breakeven or maybe at a slight loss and move on. Risk/reward is still in my favor.
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