Disruptive Technology Stocks

[Tommy]

Globalstar Triples -- These Stocks Are Next

Dec 13 2013, 10:49 | about: GSAT, includes: ATTU, GLUU, GTAT, HIMX, PXLW, TPCS

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1897431-globalstar-triples-these-stocks-are-next?source=email_rt_article_readmore

Disclosure: I am long AAPL, ATTU, GLUU, OTCQB:GSAT, HIMX, PXLW, OTCQB:TPCS. (More...)

(Editors' Note: This article covers a micro-cap stock. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.)

Since 1996, I have tripled my money every three years or so, on average. In 2009, I started sharing my Wall Street expertise with Main Street investors. That led to the creation of my popular "Poised To Triple" series on Seeking Alpha, along with the founding of PTT Research.

During my time on Seeking Alpha, 18 of my picks have doubled, tripled, or been acquired. This week, Globalstar (OTCQB:GSAT) became #19.

On Wednesday and Thursday, GSAT bucked the market downtrend and rocketed from $1.72 to a high of $2.06 -- more than triple where it was when I picked it, just four months ago. In this article, I will update you on GSAT, along with four other stocks that I believe are poised to triple.

At The Core

I generally classify my picks as being "Core" or "Speculative", among others. Core stocks are ones which have established themselves and are on a strong growth trajectory. Attunity (ATTU) and Glu Mobile (GLUU) my two favorites at present.

GLUU is an emerging play on mobile gaming, which I believe is poised to triple in value. ATTU is a leading provider of Big Data solutions, which recently raised $20 million in order to accelerate the expansion of its sales and marketing efforts. Both company's business plans are further along and safer than my Speculative picks and therefore justify larger position sizes.

It is very common for picks like these to attract new coverage from Wall Street analysts. We saw this happen with ATTU this week, as ROTH Capital initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $13.50 price target (59% above its levels at the time, and 300% above our initiation price).

We have also seen improving Wall Street estimates and ratings for GLUU, whose CFO met with Wall Street investors on Tuesday. Because of this, GLUU is my largest personal holding (with ATTU not far behind). In general, I like to allocate 70-90% of my capital to Core picks, with heavy concentration in my favorites (like ATTU and GLUU).

Speculating On Higher Returns

"Speculative" picks tend to be less established than Core selections. In addition, reaching their potential may be reliant on external forces. As a result, they present a bit more risk, but also hold the promise of much more explosive profits.

Pixelworks (PXLW) and Globalstar have been two of my favorite Speculative names. Pixelworks became one of my picks to triple because of its unique position in the video processing space. The company has been showing steady progress in its core business, even as it works to deliver new solutions that will bring unprecedented levels of video resolution to mobile devices.

Apple (AAPL) has been moving away from Samsung (GM:SSNLF) as a technology partner due to obvious competitive issues. For PXLW, the falling out is particularly notable on display-panels (like iPad screens...and potentially iTV screens). Without Samsung's long history in TV display technology, Apple need to find an alternative. I believe that PXLW could be the solution, just as I believed that Himax (HIMX) would be the solution for Google (GOOG) to develop Glass.

If everything continue to progress as it has, PXLW's share price could head into the double digits (a near triple from current levels). It may also be upgraded to a "Core" holding before in the coming months, which would justify a significant increase in one's ownership in the stock. In the interim, a move to Roth Capital's price target of $6 will represent a 50%+ gain from current levels.

As for GSAT, after Amazon Tested GSAT's Satellite Network, it became apparent to me that the company's business and spectrum assets could be worth more than $4 per share (more than double GSAT's current stock price). However, this value will only be realized if the FCC approves a measure to expand the ways its spectrum can be utilized to include terrestrial Wi-Fi (thus, the speculative nature of the stock).

They're making great progress in this regard, but success is not yet a foregone conclusion. It's pretty clear that a great deal of GSAT's potential is out of its hands. Accordingly, I follow the advice of CNBC's Jim Cramer (a former client of mine via Cramer & Co. and Cramer Berkowitz) who advocates allocating 10% of one's portfolio to speculative picks. At times, I'll go as high as 20%, depending on my perception of the market's appetite for risk.

Despite this conservatism, I remain very bullish on the prospects for PXLW and GSAT.

This week institutional buyers followed suit on GSAT, presumably on the news that LightSquared is attracting big money from competing bidders. Indeed, the demand for wireless and public Wi-Fi bandwidth is at an all-time high and rising on the back of unprecedented mobile device sales worldwide. This is clearly great news for GSAT's prospects.

More Pain, More Gain?

Some of my Speculative carry extra risk (and extra potential for outsized gains). I often call these "Ten Baggers Or Bust". Because of their potential to bust, picks like these represent the smallest part of my portfolio. They are a subset of my 10-20% allocation to speculative names. However, due to their potential to explode, I believe they serve an important role in a diversified portfolio.

Techprecision (OTCQB:TPCS) is my favorite example of this right now. The company is chasing several large opportunities:

Nuclear - TechPrecision had been supplying components to the nuclear power industry for over 50 years. It remains one of the few U.S.-based precision manufacturers with nuclear component (N-Stamp) certification. We estimate that over 500 old casks need to be replaced with newer, safer casks. At a price of $1 million apiece, this appears to be a $500 million opportunity in its nascent stages.

Sapphire - Shares of GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT) have skyrocketed on the belief that sapphire is on the cusp of wide-scale commercial adoption, primarily in cell phones. TPCS provides sapphire production equipment (furnaces).

Naval - On April 10, the U.S. government provided approval for the purchase of 10 Virginia-class submarines. At one point, TPCS was doing just $300k of work per Virginia-Class sub. It has since grown that number to $7 million per sub. That's $14 million per year of revenue under the new work order, assuming their participation level holds firm.

Other - TPCS is also involved in other areas, such as Oil & Gas and the solar market (which finally appears to be rebounding).

However, with many of these opportunities, the chase needs to graduate to "participation". Simultaneously, management is navigating a delicate financing situation.

Net-net, the company could eventually rise 10-fold from my initiation price ($0.40) to $4 per share. However, if things take too long to develop, that promise could evaporate. Luckily, the company recently got some breathing room by winning an $8 million deal to supply GT Advanced Technologies with sapphire chambers. These chambers will be used as part of a strategic relationship with Apple.