OPTIONS TRADERS CO-OP

[DragonBits]

Roy I looked around the web for that piece on recession by Rich Yamarone. Didn't find it, found John Mauldin letter about it.


What I did find was that Rich Yamarone has been predicting a recession since 2011. No doubt we will have a recession at some point, but hard to use this new prediction as any kind of timing tool. Being off by a week in options can be bad, being off by 2 years isn't useful even in long term investing.

Yamarone usually uses an inverted yield curve, but the FED has distorted the yield curve, so that can't be used.

This is a new territory for everyone, I don't think there was ever a time in history when we had the sort of conditions we have now.

So how can anyone predict the near future with that in mind?

========================================================

November 16th, 2011

Economist says malaise could turn into new recession

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2011/nov/16/c2-economist-says-malaise-could-turn-into-new/

What are the odds of a 2112 recession?

http://www.slideshare.net/UTMcCombs/yamarone-powerpoint-060412

The Recession of 2011?

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2011/08/20/the-recession-of-2011.aspx