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Thursday, December 12, 2013 11:52:54 AM
In long run there will not be much difference whether your entry point is .16 or a few pennies below or above.
I would respectfully submit that this is not true. When you are talking about penny plays, pennies are very much material and matter a lot. As I am sure you know and would agree, it is not about pennies or dollars -- it is ALWAYS about percentages.
Without saying whether I agree w/Tinkerer's price targets, I do understand his investment premise. If he believes that the sp will fall sub-.10, then this simple example can illustrate my point.
Many of the Core here were touting SCRC shares to be "cheapies" even as the sp approached 1.00 this past summer. Even more recently while it was in the .20's. But let's just use your example of .16 and compare it against not the sub-.10 prices Tinkerer is looking for, but just simply .10.
If you invest $10,000 at .16, you will have the following if the sp hits the following levels:
$31,250 @ .50 (where many of the Core are now touting the sp can easily hit)
$62,500 @ 1.00 (where the high was during the last P&D)
$250,000 @ 4.00 (where some of the Core was touting it would hit during the last P&D)
Now, if Tinkerer invested $10,000 at .10, his shares would be worth as follows:
$50,000 @ .50
$100,000 @ 1.00
$400,000 @ $4.00
I would suggest that the difference is very much material and VERY significant to all retail investors. The difference between buying in at .16 vs buying in at .10 means that if SCRC hits the motherlode (or even any significant milestone in between), a buyer at .16 will be out 60% more than if he had waited until .10.
It is all about risk-reward. And, as I stated several times in prior posts, including the one that is stickied, entry points are very important to retail investors. It has nothing to do w/being an investor or a trader. It is simply about being a smart shareholder regardless of the duration for which you hold your shares.
And, once again, please keep in mind that none of this has ANYTHING to do w/SCRC's long-term prospects. It is ALL about the investment thesis at this time.
It is clear that at this very time, liquidation is taking place. Hell, the sell-buy ratio so far today is a horrific 10:1. There may be good news on the horizon, but clearly potential investors like Tinkerer have performed their DD, have spoken directly w/the CEO, and have formed a mental timeline of events and legitimely believe that there will be no near-term positive catalysts to beat back the current dilutive environment. I get that.
I don't have a crystal ball, so no one knows if SCRC will issue a phenomenal PR before the end-of-year while the sp is still a healthy amount over .10. If that happens then Tinkerer will be out of luck, and he has clearly stated that he understands that risk. But considering current events, I don't fault him for taking the approach he is taking, and it is very much understandable.
He is not saying that he is right, and he is not saying that everyone needs to agree with him and mimic him. But he has clearly explained his investment thesis and it is rationally based.
Continued GLTA...
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