Tink - I am having a little trouble napping, so I wanted to drop you a quick note to say "hello" and to wish you well. I do you hope you join the team soon. You are clearly an intelligent and savvy trader. As you know, I am not a trader. My current basis is $0.185ish, and I will definitely add if the pps drops to your target numbers, as will a bunch of other folks. So, we will be fighting you for those shares.
Your dilution opinion is no different than the opinion that I and most of the other longterm shareholders have posted on this board for the past several weeks. Just look at my stickied post where you will see my 2014 EOY estimate of 125M O/S. So, you and I (and several others are tracking at least on that point). But we always appreciate hearing from others. We all need to keep our expectations in line with reality, and we strongly agree the reality is the O/S and float will increase above the numbers that my good friend, Tutter posted here a few days ago.
I also agree there are several "savvy" investors waiting on the sidelines. Indeed, some of them are very good friends. And as I have stated many times, I respect them and appreciate and consider all of their objective opinions. I have taken a significant amount of investment advice from them and have had the pleasure to meet many of them in person over the years. The number of my friends who are still on the sidelines is shrinking, but the ones who have not yet initiated a position are interested in the potential here and have kindly requested periodic updates. Eventually, as news starts to flow next month, I anticipate more will enter and buy big, eating up more of the low float.
I also believe the "unofficial float" is well below the reported float that Tutter gave us. Indeed, my ballpark estimate is less than 20M shares and shrinking by the day. Now, of course, additional dilution will result in increasing the float if and when those shares hit the market. But as better news hits, I anticipate friendlier financing and fewer shares hitting the market.
As to your comment, "the company NEEDS to sell many shares in order to afford the manufacturing cost associated with the China deal," please re-read the Ironridge PR. Scrips stated it will use a portion of those proceeds to fund these costs for China. I will agree, however, that it is possible that the initial orders from China will be larger than the company anticipates. If so, they will need additional financing and they will get it on much friendlier terms.
These are only my opinions, and there are many who disagree and raise good points to support their contrary opinions. Hence the reason for this board - to discuss and debate who has the better crystal ball on a myriad of issues. I am not always right, nor are the folks on the other side of my opinions. Having said that, I am confident in my opinions.
That's all for now. I will move aside.
Good luck to all!
BSAV
