Additional thoughts
I pay attention to the senior bonds as they obviously stand above the common in terms of recovery. After bottoming in the 50s, they've settled back into the 70s, which is a reasonably good sign. The converts are basically like the common though obviously senior. They are illiquid so I don't view their price movement as that important at this stage.
The biggest problem for this company is the US transportation segment (ie. car batteries). It's the lowest margin business and frankly, it would be good to exit that segment if possible and just focus on the industrial side (competes with ENS) and the European transportation segment too. Those are areas where they can generate decent EBITDA margins and probably lower their capital expenditure requirements in the process.
The last bankruptcy resulted in a ~$1.5bn enterprise value by the presiding judge. There was over $2bn of debt heading into that bankruptcy. Even if the enterprise value is deemed to have declined (due primarily to mismanagement) to say $1.2bn, with less than $700mm of net debt, there should be some recovery for the equity in my opinion. Even if it's only say $100mm, that translates to $1.25 of equity value. I'm just throwing out some numbers, but something to keep in mind.
At the end of the day, the judge's enterprise value determination will be key. That will be predicated on the trailing twelve months EBITDA. I believe the reason that the POR was pushed back to the spring of 2014 was to allow the company to operate for a full fiscal year (ends in March) under the new management.
