Liberty Star Uranium and Metals Corp (LBSR)

[WillyburgD]

This is always fun. With the caveat that I have no clue, here's how I see it playing out - if we don't go under :

If we do some limited scout drilling (e.g., 10 holes) before we sign any JV, I think we jump to somewhere b/w 5 cents and a dime on favorable results. This would give us a market cap of somewhere b/w $40M and $90M. Given the potential size of the deposit, and the fact that it is looking like we have indeed found a massive ore body, I think that is entirely reasonable.

If that scout drilling results in a JV w/ a major sufficient to fund years 1-4 of the plans JB announced today, I would guess we comfortably rise to previous highs. If, for instance, we bounced around the 20 cent range, that would give us a market cap of somewhere b/w $150 and $200M, which doesn't sound far-fetched (to me). In fact, if in years 2 & 3, we continue to prove out a very large ($100B+) ore body w/ good grade, I would expect we would get in the $500M to $1B market range, depending on the equity stake we retained.

For comparison, NAK peaked at about $2B in market cap but (i) had already completed tons of drilling which showed a truly massive deposit which resulted in (ii) retaining 50% of the project w/ $1.5B committed from Anglo. I think it is unlikely we will find ourselves in a similar position. However, it should be noted that the Pebble project (in all likihood) has a much lower grade than should be the case at Hay Mountain; Hay Mt. needs far less infrastructure to bring into development; and has far less political risk associated with it.

I should also add that NAK was projected @ its peak of $22 to rise to $80 if the mine actually went into production. I think we have a much better shot of reaching production than Pebble.