ajtj99's Market Pulse

[plexxus]

>>>plexxus - Let's say you have a portfolio where you could choose only Midcaps, Small Caps, or Nasd100 index funds. How would you weight it? So far, YTD we know Small Caps are leading just like they did in 2003 so I would definitely have them as part of my portfolio. We know that MidCaps have also performed very well since 2000 so that is a safe move. We know that once the strong 2328 resistance is broken on the Nasdaq that the Nasd100 could have a zoomer. The Nasd100 also did well in 2003, BUT they can they are risky because technology can fall out of favor quick.

I'm thinking I will rebalance to 33.3% in each and begin overweighting with the leader on each pullback to the 50dema. I'm looking for other ideas if you have any.

As always, I value your advice. You are an excellent contributor.>>>

Hi Jim

Per your question above its one I receive often. I personally would stay balanced. The Nasdaq made a first test of our key 2328 area a couple of weeks back and pulled in. It appears as though we're going to attempt another test of that area. If however, we clear our 2328-35 area convincingly I'd consider a somewhat higher weighting of Nasdaq related stocks. I have not studied the components of the Nasdaq 100 specifically. I know there are many of the old guard/large caps that continue to lag. Both the Russell 2000 and Mid Cap Groups are on breakouts technically. I suspect that 2006 could be a decent year for the Nasdaq if we clear our 2328-35 area convincingly as that move will take it into what I'd term a "Thin Zone" on the charts...one which will allow price to traverse rather quickly.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20000307,20061231][pc50!c200!f][...

If you study the BRCM chart over at my site you'll see that BRCM had a similar open price channel and we saw how quickly that stock ranup even prior to earnings last week. KLAC is another key stock to keep an eye on per the broad market winds and more specifically the techs. Its currently up against its 3 year downtrendline...$55ish being the key pivot here.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=klac,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20010307,20061231][pb50!b200!f][vc...

Hopefully some of the above helped!!!

Robb