Monday, December 02, 2013 4:30:21 PM
Assad regime vows no surrender of power
i don't see any unfounded optimism, not any naivety in your post .. none .. optimism is legit most anytime, i
reckon .. i'm with you in hoping Assad might one day bend though the position(s) on that still look intractable ..
Government and opposition both say they will attend peace talks, but lay out vastly contrasting views on Assad's future.
Last updated: 27 Nov 2013 23:51
[the image copied too big]
Rebels say they will not enter talks if Assad remains in power [Reuters]
The Syrian government says Bashar al-Assad's position as president is not up for negotiation at peace talks, calling such demands by the opposition "delusions and dreams".
The statement, issued by the foreign ministry via the SANA news agency on Wednesday, said a delegation would go to planned Geneva II talks in January, but Assad would not "surrender power".
"The age of colonialism, with the installation and toppling of governments, is over. They must wake from their dreams," the statement said. "If they insist on these delusions, there is no need for them to attend Geneva II."
"The official Syrian delegation is not going to Geneva to surrender power."
The government delegation would convey "the wishes of the Syrian people, foremost among them the elimination of terrorism" - a reference rebels fighting Assad's regime.
The Syrian statement was the first formal response from Damascus to this week's announcement of the talks.
The Geneva II talks, being pushed by the UN, aims to create a transitional government to end the civil war.
The Syrian National Coalition opposition group will also attend the long-delayed talks in January, the group's president, Ahmad Jarba, said on Wednesday.
In an interview with Reuters and the Associated Press, he also said regional power Iran should only be allowed to attend if it stopped taking part in the bloodshed in Syria and withdrew its forces and proxies.
The coalition said previously it was ready to attend if humanitarian aid corridors were set up and political prisoners released.
It insists that President Bashar al-Assad can play no future role in Syria.
"We are now ready to go to Geneva," Jarba said on a visit to Cairo, adding that the opposition viewed the Geneva talks as a step to a leadership transition and a "genuine democratic transformation in Syria".
"There is no way that the individual responsible for the destruction of the country can be responsible for building the country," said Jarba, referring to Assad.
Ceasefire call
Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said on Wednesday that Tehran and Ankara would press for a ceasefire in Syria ahead of peace talks planned for January, the Mehr news agency reported.
"All our efforts should be carried out to finish the conflict and reach a ceasefire even before Geneva II," Zarif said after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu.
"Iran and Turkey have similar standpoints on several issues, including that there is no military solution to the Syrian crisis."
On Tuesday, the rebel Free Syrian Army's commander, General Salim Idriss, said his forces would not agree a ceasefire to smooth the way for talks.
Source: Agencies
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/11/assad-regime-says-no-surrender-power-20131127104615147136.html
===== .. this one on tab from last night suggests Saudi Arabia still knows which side it's bread is buttered on ..
Analysis: Saudis have few options as they push tougher foreign policy
By Angus McDowall RIYADH Mon Dec 2, 2013 2:35am EST
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal speaks during a joint news conference with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (not pictured) in Riyadh November 4, 2013.
Credit: Reuters/Faisal Al Nasser
(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia seems to have few viable options for pursuing a more independent and forthright foreign policy, despite its deep unease about the West's tentative rapprochement with Iran .. http://www.reuters.com/places/iran .
Upset with the United States, senior Saudis have hinted at a range of possibilities, from building strategic relations with other world powers to pushing a tougher line against Iranian allies in the Arab world and, if world powers fail to foil Tehran's nuclear ambitions, even seeking its own atomic bomb.
But alternative powers are hard even to contemplate for a nation that has been a staunch U.S. ally for decades. Russia .. http://www.reuters.com/places/russia .. is on the opposite side to Riyadh over the Syrian war and China's military clout remains modest compared with the United States'.
Robert Jordan, U.S. ambassador to Riyadh from 2001-03, said there would be limits to any Saudi alliances with other powers.
"There is no country in the world more capable of providing the protection of their oil fields, and their economy .. http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy?lc=int_mb_1001 , than the U.S., and the Saudis are aware of that. We're not going to see them jump out of that orbit," he told Reuters.
While Jordan was a senior diplomat in the administration of President George W. Bush, some Saudi analysts also say the kingdom is well aware of what major foreign policy shifts would involve - particularly any pursuit of nuclear weapons.
This could end up casting Saudi Arabia .. http://www.reuters.com/places/saudi-arabia .. as the international villain, rather than its regional arch-rival Iran .. http://www.reuters.com/places/iran?lc=int_mb_1001 , and Riyadh has no appetite for the kind of isolation that has forced Tehran to the negotiating table.
"Saudi Arabia .. http://www.reuters.com/places/saudi-arabia?lc=int_mb_1001 .. doesn't need to become a second Iran .. http://www.reuters.com/places/iran?lc=int_mb_1001 ," said a Saudi analyst close to official thinking. "It would be a total reversal of our traditional behavior, of being a reliable member of the international community that promotes strategic stability and stabilizes oil markets .. http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets?lc=int_mb_1001 ."
Diplomatic sources and analysts in the Gulf say the kingdom, while unsettled, will not risk a breach in relations with its main non-Arab ally and will explore, however warily, a purely diplomatic response to the Iranian opening.
Top Saudis are nevertheless furious with Washington. Senior U.S. officials held secret bilateral talks with Iranian counterparts for months to prepare for last month's interim nuclear agreement between six world powers and Tehran, raising Gulf Arab rulers' fears that Washington is willing to go behind their backs to do a deal with Iran.
Saudi leaders were taken unawares by the content of the deal that was struck in the early hours of November 24, despite an earlier promise by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to keep them informed of developments, diplomatic sources in the Gulf said.
In Washington, a senior State Department official said Kerry had been in close contact with his counterparts throughout the two rounds of negotiations in Geneva, and had talked to Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal on November 25.
"The agreement was reached in the middle of the night and Secretary Kerry spoke with the Saudi Foreign Minister soon afterward," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The agreement offers Tehran relief from sanctions that are strangling its economy, in return for more oversight of its nuclear program. Riyadh, along with its Western allies, fears this is aimed at producing weapons, a charge Tehran denies.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif suggested on Sunday the deal should not be seen as a threat. "This agreement cannot be at the expense of any country in the region," he told reporters in Kuwait. "We look at Saudi Arabia as an important and influential regional country and we are working to strengthen cooperation with it for the benefit of the region."
Diplomatic sources in the Gulf say Riyadh is nervous that the deal will ease pressure on Tehran, allowing it more room to damage Saudi interests elsewhere in the Middle East.
The conservative Sunni Muslim kingdom is at odds with Iran's revolutionary Shi'ite leaders in struggles across the Arab world, including in Lebanon, Iraq .. http://www.reuters.com/places/iraq?lc=int_mb_1001 , Bahrain and Yemen .. http://www.reuters.com/places/yemen .
Most of all, Riyadh sees Iran's open support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in fighting a rebellion backed by Gulf states as a foreign occupation of Arab lands.
Two Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders have been killed in Syria .. http://www.reuters.com/places/syria .. this year, and rebels have also said Iranian fighters are on the ground, although it is unclear whether they are there in any great numbers. The Lebanese Shi'ite movement Hezbollah, which is allied to Tehran, has also sent fighters to help Assad's forces, although these are Arabs.
BOLD DECLARATIONS
Riyadh has expressed lukewarm support for the nuclear deal, couched alongside caveats that it was a "first step" and that a more comprehensive solution required "good will".
But some prominent Saudis have made bold declarations that Riyadh will develop a tough new foreign policy, defending its interests in keeping with its status as the richest Arab state and birthplace of Islam.
Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf, the Saudi ambassador to London, told The Times newspaper that "all options are available" to Riyadh, including seeking its own atomic weapon, if Iran managed to build the bomb.
But diplomatic sources in the Gulf and analysts close to Saudi thinking say the main problem in turning such rhetoric into action is the lack on an obvious replacement for the U.S. security umbrella in the Gulf, or for the American military's role in advising, arming and assisting the Saudi armed forces.
"There'll be more contact with the Russians and Chinese than in the past. They've gone elsewhere for weapons before and we'll see some more of that, but the overall environment will be America-centric," said Jordan.
A Western adviser to Gulf countries on geopolitical issues said senior Saudis have looked at ways of reducing the kingdom's long-term reliance on the United States.
France .. http://www.reuters.com/places/france .. is one option, albeit one that remains firmly in the Western camp notwithstanding past differences with NATO allies.
Riyadh has worked closely with Paris in recent months on both Syrian and Iranian issues, and has awarded it big naval contracts. That said, the Saudi armed forces and economy are so closely tied to the United States that any serious attempt to disengage over the longer term would be prohibitively costly and difficult, diplomatic sources in the Gulf say.
Washington remains much closer to Riyadh on every Middle Eastern issue than any other world power at present except France .. http://www.reuters.com/places/france?lc=int_mb_1001 , which has taken a hard line on Iran.
In Syria .. http://www.reuters.com/places/syria?lc=int_mb_1001 - the issue over which there is the greatest disagreement between Riyadh and Washington, the kingdom is already arming and training some rebel groups which the United States, wary about arming jihadists, views with caution.
Diplomatic sources in the Gulf say these efforts will continue and may expand, but logistical challenges will hinder any rapid attempt to increase training much beyond the thousand or so rebels now working in Jordan with Saudi special forces.
Riyadh's own fears of an Islamist backlash, reinforced by a bombing campaign inside the country in the last decade, prevent it from arming more militant groups with ties to al Qaeda.
The sources say Saudi Arabia still relies on a lot of support from Western allies for command and control expertise, and would find it very difficult to build its own coalition of Arab allies to join forces in a military campaign.
The kingdom and its five closest regional friends, the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, have been unable to agree on a shared missile defense shield after years of discussions, they note.
THE SAUDI BOMB
Prince Mohammed's warnings on the possibility of seeking a nuclear bomb have previously been voiced by other top Saudis, including former intelligence minister Prince Turki al-Faisal.
But on closer inspection this looks less like a serious statement of intent and more like an attempt to nudge world powers into being tougher on Iran by raising the specter of an atomic arms race in the Middle East, where Israel is already widely presumed to have nuclear weapons.
The analyst close to official thinking suggested that actively seeking nuclear arms would backfire, making Riyadh the proliferator of mass destruction weapons instead of Iran.
Media commentators have speculated the kingdom could obtain an atomic bomb from its nuclear-armed friend Pakistan .. http://www.reuters.com/places/pakistan , or on the arms market. But the analyst said it would never place itself in the position of being an international outcast like Iraq under Saddam Hussein and more recently Tehran.
"Iraq did it. Iran did it. Saudi Arabia would never do this type of behavior," he said.
Saudi Arabia is in the very early stages of planning an atomic power program, and has signed up to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and a more rigorous safeguarding protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Any attempt to build a bomb in secret would probably take decades due to the kingdom's current lack of any nuclear technology, expertise or materials, analysts believe.
Even if it were to attempt to short cut that process by, for example, buying an off-the-peg atomic weapons system from Pakistan - a transaction itself fraught with difficulties - the obstacles would be formidable.
"There's a lot of infrastructure to put in place, to make the threat credible and deliverable. It's not clear to me that Saudi Arabia would be able to do that in short order at all," said Mark Hibbs, a senior associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and nuclear proliferation expert.
Such an effort would also incur a massive price in diplomatic and economic relations with other countries, notably the United States. The Saudi economy, reliant on oil exports and the import of many goods and services from overseas, appears ill suited to withstand such pressures.
(Additional reporting by William Maclean in Dubai, Arshad Mohammed in Washington, Mahmoud Harby in Kuwait and Dominic Evans in Beirut; editing by David Stamp)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/02/us-iran-deal-saudi-analysis-idUSBRE9B105G20131202
===== .. just heard also there is a new UN position on war crimes in Syria ..
Bashar al-Assad implicated in Syria war crimes, says UN
UN inquiry finds 'massive evidence' that president is responsible for crimes against humanity as conflict's death toll hits 126,000
Ian Black, Middle East editor
The Guardian, Tuesday 3 December 2013 05.12 AEST
Jump to comments (156)
Link to video: Syria: UN implicates Bashar al-Assad in war crimes
http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2013/dec/02/syria-un-implicates-assad-war-crimes-video
A UN inquiry has found "massive evidence" that the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, is implicated in war crimes as the latest reported death toll in the country's civil war reached 126,000.
Navi Pillay, the UN's human rights chief .. http://www.theguardian.com/law/human-rights , said a commission of inquiry into human rights violations in Syria .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/syria .. "has produced massive evidence … [of] very serious crimes, war crimes, crimes against humanity" and that "the evidence indicates responsibility at the highest level of government, including the head of state."
The report is the first time the UN body has accused Assaddirectly and it is unclear how it will affect January's Geneva II peace conference to try to end the country's bloody conflict, now in its 33rd month.
Damascus swiftly dismissed Pillay's remarks. "She has been talking nonsense for a long time and we don't listen to her," Faisal Miqdad, the deputy foreign minister, told AP.
In May. Pillay said the conflict in Syria had "become an intolerable affront to the human conscience".
The UN commissioner's statement, reported from Geneva, coincided with the publication of a new death toll of 125,835 for the last 33 months. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), based in the UK, said .. http://syriahr.com/en/index.php?option=com_news&nid=1235&Itemid=2&task=displaynews#.Upy-7JRHBOg .. the dead included 44,381 civilians, including 6,627 children and 4,454 women. The SOHR said at least 27,746 opposition fighters had been killed, among them just over 19,000 civilians who took up arms to fight the Assad regime. The opposition toll also included 2,221 army defectors and 6,261 non-Syrians who joined the rebels.
The figures cover the period from 18 March 2011 – when the Syrian uprising began with protests in the southern city of Deraa – to 1 December 2013.
The UN commission has repeatedly accused the Syrian government, which is supported by Russia and Iran, of crimes against humanity and war crimes. It has said the rebels, who are backed by both western and Arab countries, are also guilty of committing war crimes.
But the four-member panel, headed by the Brazilian Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro and including the former UN war crimes prosecutor, Carla Del Ponte, has never before directly named or accused Assad, who is both Syria's head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
Pillay said the names of perpetrators "remain sealed until I am requested to furnish them to credible investigation … It could be a national investigation or international investigation."
Pillay reiterated her call for the case to be handed over to the international criminal court (ICC) in The Hague to ensure accountability. But an ICC referral requires the backing of the "big five" permanent members of the UN security council, where Russia and China have blocked any action against the Syrian government and are unlikely to change tack.
The current position of the US, UK and France also means that the war crimes accusations are unlikely to gain traction. Last August's agreement between the US and Russia over securing the disarmament of Syria's chemical weapons has made it a priority for the Geneva II peace conference to be held on schedule on 22 January. Assad, who has promised to send representatives, is unlikely to co-operate if he is facing war crimes charges.
Pillay warned that ongoing efforts to destroy Syria's chemical weapons should not distract from killings with conventional weapons, which have accounted for the vast majority of deaths in the Syrian war. "The scale of viciousness of the abuses being perpetrated by elements on both sides almost defies belief," she said.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/02/syrian-officials-involved-war-crimes-bashar-al-assad-un-investigators
i don't see any unfounded optimism, not any naivety in your post .. none .. optimism is legit most anytime, i
reckon .. i'm with you in hoping Assad might one day bend though the position(s) on that still look intractable ..
Government and opposition both say they will attend peace talks, but lay out vastly contrasting views on Assad's future.
Last updated: 27 Nov 2013 23:51
[the image copied too big]
Rebels say they will not enter talks if Assad remains in power [Reuters]
The Syrian government says Bashar al-Assad's position as president is not up for negotiation at peace talks, calling such demands by the opposition "delusions and dreams".
The statement, issued by the foreign ministry via the SANA news agency on Wednesday, said a delegation would go to planned Geneva II talks in January, but Assad would not "surrender power".
"The age of colonialism, with the installation and toppling of governments, is over. They must wake from their dreams," the statement said. "If they insist on these delusions, there is no need for them to attend Geneva II."
"The official Syrian delegation is not going to Geneva to surrender power."
The government delegation would convey "the wishes of the Syrian people, foremost among them the elimination of terrorism" - a reference rebels fighting Assad's regime.
The Syrian statement was the first formal response from Damascus to this week's announcement of the talks.
The Geneva II talks, being pushed by the UN, aims to create a transitional government to end the civil war.
The Syrian National Coalition opposition group will also attend the long-delayed talks in January, the group's president, Ahmad Jarba, said on Wednesday.
In an interview with Reuters and the Associated Press, he also said regional power Iran should only be allowed to attend if it stopped taking part in the bloodshed in Syria and withdrew its forces and proxies.
The coalition said previously it was ready to attend if humanitarian aid corridors were set up and political prisoners released.
It insists that President Bashar al-Assad can play no future role in Syria.
"We are now ready to go to Geneva," Jarba said on a visit to Cairo, adding that the opposition viewed the Geneva talks as a step to a leadership transition and a "genuine democratic transformation in Syria".
"There is no way that the individual responsible for the destruction of the country can be responsible for building the country," said Jarba, referring to Assad.
Ceasefire call
Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said on Wednesday that Tehran and Ankara would press for a ceasefire in Syria ahead of peace talks planned for January, the Mehr news agency reported.
"All our efforts should be carried out to finish the conflict and reach a ceasefire even before Geneva II," Zarif said after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu.
"Iran and Turkey have similar standpoints on several issues, including that there is no military solution to the Syrian crisis."
On Tuesday, the rebel Free Syrian Army's commander, General Salim Idriss, said his forces would not agree a ceasefire to smooth the way for talks.
Source: Agencies
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/11/assad-regime-says-no-surrender-power-20131127104615147136.html
===== .. this one on tab from last night suggests Saudi Arabia still knows which side it's bread is buttered on ..
Analysis: Saudis have few options as they push tougher foreign policy
By Angus McDowall RIYADH Mon Dec 2, 2013 2:35am EST
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal speaks during a joint news conference with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (not pictured) in Riyadh November 4, 2013.
Credit: Reuters/Faisal Al Nasser
(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia seems to have few viable options for pursuing a more independent and forthright foreign policy, despite its deep unease about the West's tentative rapprochement with Iran .. http://www.reuters.com/places/iran .
Upset with the United States, senior Saudis have hinted at a range of possibilities, from building strategic relations with other world powers to pushing a tougher line against Iranian allies in the Arab world and, if world powers fail to foil Tehran's nuclear ambitions, even seeking its own atomic bomb.
But alternative powers are hard even to contemplate for a nation that has been a staunch U.S. ally for decades. Russia .. http://www.reuters.com/places/russia .. is on the opposite side to Riyadh over the Syrian war and China's military clout remains modest compared with the United States'.
Robert Jordan, U.S. ambassador to Riyadh from 2001-03, said there would be limits to any Saudi alliances with other powers.
"There is no country in the world more capable of providing the protection of their oil fields, and their economy .. http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy?lc=int_mb_1001 , than the U.S., and the Saudis are aware of that. We're not going to see them jump out of that orbit," he told Reuters.
While Jordan was a senior diplomat in the administration of President George W. Bush, some Saudi analysts also say the kingdom is well aware of what major foreign policy shifts would involve - particularly any pursuit of nuclear weapons.
This could end up casting Saudi Arabia .. http://www.reuters.com/places/saudi-arabia .. as the international villain, rather than its regional arch-rival Iran .. http://www.reuters.com/places/iran?lc=int_mb_1001 , and Riyadh has no appetite for the kind of isolation that has forced Tehran to the negotiating table.
"Saudi Arabia .. http://www.reuters.com/places/saudi-arabia?lc=int_mb_1001 .. doesn't need to become a second Iran .. http://www.reuters.com/places/iran?lc=int_mb_1001 ," said a Saudi analyst close to official thinking. "It would be a total reversal of our traditional behavior, of being a reliable member of the international community that promotes strategic stability and stabilizes oil markets .. http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets?lc=int_mb_1001 ."
Diplomatic sources and analysts in the Gulf say the kingdom, while unsettled, will not risk a breach in relations with its main non-Arab ally and will explore, however warily, a purely diplomatic response to the Iranian opening.
Top Saudis are nevertheless furious with Washington. Senior U.S. officials held secret bilateral talks with Iranian counterparts for months to prepare for last month's interim nuclear agreement between six world powers and Tehran, raising Gulf Arab rulers' fears that Washington is willing to go behind their backs to do a deal with Iran.
Saudi leaders were taken unawares by the content of the deal that was struck in the early hours of November 24, despite an earlier promise by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to keep them informed of developments, diplomatic sources in the Gulf said.
In Washington, a senior State Department official said Kerry had been in close contact with his counterparts throughout the two rounds of negotiations in Geneva, and had talked to Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal on November 25.
"The agreement was reached in the middle of the night and Secretary Kerry spoke with the Saudi Foreign Minister soon afterward," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The agreement offers Tehran relief from sanctions that are strangling its economy, in return for more oversight of its nuclear program. Riyadh, along with its Western allies, fears this is aimed at producing weapons, a charge Tehran denies.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif suggested on Sunday the deal should not be seen as a threat. "This agreement cannot be at the expense of any country in the region," he told reporters in Kuwait. "We look at Saudi Arabia as an important and influential regional country and we are working to strengthen cooperation with it for the benefit of the region."
Diplomatic sources in the Gulf say Riyadh is nervous that the deal will ease pressure on Tehran, allowing it more room to damage Saudi interests elsewhere in the Middle East.
The conservative Sunni Muslim kingdom is at odds with Iran's revolutionary Shi'ite leaders in struggles across the Arab world, including in Lebanon, Iraq .. http://www.reuters.com/places/iraq?lc=int_mb_1001 , Bahrain and Yemen .. http://www.reuters.com/places/yemen .
Most of all, Riyadh sees Iran's open support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in fighting a rebellion backed by Gulf states as a foreign occupation of Arab lands.
Two Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders have been killed in Syria .. http://www.reuters.com/places/syria .. this year, and rebels have also said Iranian fighters are on the ground, although it is unclear whether they are there in any great numbers. The Lebanese Shi'ite movement Hezbollah, which is allied to Tehran, has also sent fighters to help Assad's forces, although these are Arabs.
BOLD DECLARATIONS
Riyadh has expressed lukewarm support for the nuclear deal, couched alongside caveats that it was a "first step" and that a more comprehensive solution required "good will".
But some prominent Saudis have made bold declarations that Riyadh will develop a tough new foreign policy, defending its interests in keeping with its status as the richest Arab state and birthplace of Islam.
Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf, the Saudi ambassador to London, told The Times newspaper that "all options are available" to Riyadh, including seeking its own atomic weapon, if Iran managed to build the bomb.
But diplomatic sources in the Gulf and analysts close to Saudi thinking say the main problem in turning such rhetoric into action is the lack on an obvious replacement for the U.S. security umbrella in the Gulf, or for the American military's role in advising, arming and assisting the Saudi armed forces.
"There'll be more contact with the Russians and Chinese than in the past. They've gone elsewhere for weapons before and we'll see some more of that, but the overall environment will be America-centric," said Jordan.
A Western adviser to Gulf countries on geopolitical issues said senior Saudis have looked at ways of reducing the kingdom's long-term reliance on the United States.
France .. http://www.reuters.com/places/france .. is one option, albeit one that remains firmly in the Western camp notwithstanding past differences with NATO allies.
Riyadh has worked closely with Paris in recent months on both Syrian and Iranian issues, and has awarded it big naval contracts. That said, the Saudi armed forces and economy are so closely tied to the United States that any serious attempt to disengage over the longer term would be prohibitively costly and difficult, diplomatic sources in the Gulf say.
Washington remains much closer to Riyadh on every Middle Eastern issue than any other world power at present except France .. http://www.reuters.com/places/france?lc=int_mb_1001 , which has taken a hard line on Iran.
In Syria .. http://www.reuters.com/places/syria?lc=int_mb_1001 - the issue over which there is the greatest disagreement between Riyadh and Washington, the kingdom is already arming and training some rebel groups which the United States, wary about arming jihadists, views with caution.
Diplomatic sources in the Gulf say these efforts will continue and may expand, but logistical challenges will hinder any rapid attempt to increase training much beyond the thousand or so rebels now working in Jordan with Saudi special forces.
Riyadh's own fears of an Islamist backlash, reinforced by a bombing campaign inside the country in the last decade, prevent it from arming more militant groups with ties to al Qaeda.
The sources say Saudi Arabia still relies on a lot of support from Western allies for command and control expertise, and would find it very difficult to build its own coalition of Arab allies to join forces in a military campaign.
The kingdom and its five closest regional friends, the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, have been unable to agree on a shared missile defense shield after years of discussions, they note.
THE SAUDI BOMB
Prince Mohammed's warnings on the possibility of seeking a nuclear bomb have previously been voiced by other top Saudis, including former intelligence minister Prince Turki al-Faisal.
But on closer inspection this looks less like a serious statement of intent and more like an attempt to nudge world powers into being tougher on Iran by raising the specter of an atomic arms race in the Middle East, where Israel is already widely presumed to have nuclear weapons.
The analyst close to official thinking suggested that actively seeking nuclear arms would backfire, making Riyadh the proliferator of mass destruction weapons instead of Iran.
Media commentators have speculated the kingdom could obtain an atomic bomb from its nuclear-armed friend Pakistan .. http://www.reuters.com/places/pakistan , or on the arms market. But the analyst said it would never place itself in the position of being an international outcast like Iraq under Saddam Hussein and more recently Tehran.
"Iraq did it. Iran did it. Saudi Arabia would never do this type of behavior," he said.
Saudi Arabia is in the very early stages of planning an atomic power program, and has signed up to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and a more rigorous safeguarding protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Any attempt to build a bomb in secret would probably take decades due to the kingdom's current lack of any nuclear technology, expertise or materials, analysts believe.
Even if it were to attempt to short cut that process by, for example, buying an off-the-peg atomic weapons system from Pakistan - a transaction itself fraught with difficulties - the obstacles would be formidable.
"There's a lot of infrastructure to put in place, to make the threat credible and deliverable. It's not clear to me that Saudi Arabia would be able to do that in short order at all," said Mark Hibbs, a senior associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and nuclear proliferation expert.
Such an effort would also incur a massive price in diplomatic and economic relations with other countries, notably the United States. The Saudi economy, reliant on oil exports and the import of many goods and services from overseas, appears ill suited to withstand such pressures.
(Additional reporting by William Maclean in Dubai, Arshad Mohammed in Washington, Mahmoud Harby in Kuwait and Dominic Evans in Beirut; editing by David Stamp)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/02/us-iran-deal-saudi-analysis-idUSBRE9B105G20131202
===== .. just heard also there is a new UN position on war crimes in Syria ..
Bashar al-Assad implicated in Syria war crimes, says UN
UN inquiry finds 'massive evidence' that president is responsible for crimes against humanity as conflict's death toll hits 126,000
Ian Black, Middle East editor
The Guardian, Tuesday 3 December 2013 05.12 AEST
Jump to comments (156)
Link to video: Syria: UN implicates Bashar al-Assad in war crimes
http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2013/dec/02/syria-un-implicates-assad-war-crimes-video
A UN inquiry has found "massive evidence" that the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, is implicated in war crimes as the latest reported death toll in the country's civil war reached 126,000.
Navi Pillay, the UN's human rights chief .. http://www.theguardian.com/law/human-rights , said a commission of inquiry into human rights violations in Syria .. http://www.theguardian.com/world/syria .. "has produced massive evidence … [of] very serious crimes, war crimes, crimes against humanity" and that "the evidence indicates responsibility at the highest level of government, including the head of state."
The report is the first time the UN body has accused Assaddirectly and it is unclear how it will affect January's Geneva II peace conference to try to end the country's bloody conflict, now in its 33rd month.
Damascus swiftly dismissed Pillay's remarks. "She has been talking nonsense for a long time and we don't listen to her," Faisal Miqdad, the deputy foreign minister, told AP.
In May. Pillay said the conflict in Syria had "become an intolerable affront to the human conscience".
The UN commissioner's statement, reported from Geneva, coincided with the publication of a new death toll of 125,835 for the last 33 months. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), based in the UK, said .. http://syriahr.com/en/index.php?option=com_news&nid=1235&Itemid=2&task=displaynews#.Upy-7JRHBOg .. the dead included 44,381 civilians, including 6,627 children and 4,454 women. The SOHR said at least 27,746 opposition fighters had been killed, among them just over 19,000 civilians who took up arms to fight the Assad regime. The opposition toll also included 2,221 army defectors and 6,261 non-Syrians who joined the rebels.
The figures cover the period from 18 March 2011 – when the Syrian uprising began with protests in the southern city of Deraa – to 1 December 2013.
The UN commission has repeatedly accused the Syrian government, which is supported by Russia and Iran, of crimes against humanity and war crimes. It has said the rebels, who are backed by both western and Arab countries, are also guilty of committing war crimes.
But the four-member panel, headed by the Brazilian Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro and including the former UN war crimes prosecutor, Carla Del Ponte, has never before directly named or accused Assad, who is both Syria's head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
Pillay said the names of perpetrators "remain sealed until I am requested to furnish them to credible investigation … It could be a national investigation or international investigation."
Pillay reiterated her call for the case to be handed over to the international criminal court (ICC) in The Hague to ensure accountability. But an ICC referral requires the backing of the "big five" permanent members of the UN security council, where Russia and China have blocked any action against the Syrian government and are unlikely to change tack.
The current position of the US, UK and France also means that the war crimes accusations are unlikely to gain traction. Last August's agreement between the US and Russia over securing the disarmament of Syria's chemical weapons has made it a priority for the Geneva II peace conference to be held on schedule on 22 January. Assad, who has promised to send representatives, is unlikely to co-operate if he is facing war crimes charges.
Pillay warned that ongoing efforts to destroy Syria's chemical weapons should not distract from killings with conventional weapons, which have accounted for the vast majority of deaths in the Syrian war. "The scale of viciousness of the abuses being perpetrated by elements on both sides almost defies belief," she said.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/02/syrian-officials-involved-war-crimes-bashar-al-assad-un-investigators
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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