For Those Scratching Their Heads on FNMA Recently
Howdy folks! I am checking in here to give you my perspective on trading, this message board, and Fannie/Freddie. I am a full time day trader for the last 5 years or so now. I watch this board most days, never post, in fact just created this account today because I have been wanting to write a post here reading everything lately.
First, a brief intro...It took me almost three years to master trading, and yes during those first few years I got my pride handed to me on a silver platter again and again. I am not here to brag, this is likely to be my only post ever, but I hope the following will allow you to read what I write with some level of confidence, ultimately apply it to your thought process. This May on the FNMA run, I locked in about 250k in 2 days. This Fall locked about 150k from 1.60 to mid 2. And again just locked in about 150K during the break of 2.45 upwards. Again not bragging, I could care less what you think of me, you will see my point momentarily.
Second my stance on FNMA...I have no clue what is going to play out fundamentally or politically. I hope our leaders do the right thing and reform the housing system while at the same time rewarding tax payers..ie common shareholders. I do think it is very possible that the end result will be a hybrid solution of reform (give the politicians a win) combined with people like Ackman's private capital. I reiterate my point...I have no clue how this is all going to play...and neither do you. We all have opinions, make the best decisions with the information available...that is what investing is.
I trade FNMA, sometimes long, sometimes short, sometimes for minutes, sometimes for days/weeks/months, and it is a great vehicle for variety. I know some traders that make millions on this stock in single days...and you know what all the people I know making money on this stock tell me, both traders and investors...they have no clue what is going to happen either. They react to technical setups like the great videos Clay posts, which by the way I am also very technically based. Or as investors they react to the news, to the changing landscape in Washington, or their own due diligence.
Which brings me to my point, and why I am taking the time to write this, many of the posts on this board disturb me greatly. Because whether or not people posting will admit this to themselves, a lot of people read what is written on this board as fact/gospel...why? because they just don't know any better and need guidance.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, it is what makes a market, some want to buy, some want to sell. It is America for most of us...we all enjoy that liberty.
I implore all folks to seriously think about what they post. I am not trying to pick on anyone, and I will give an example. Blue, dont know the person at all, as far as I know they have been in and out of hospital, my thoughts go with you. But the constant posts in bold about the price going the x, really only hurt people in the long run. Your dd is great, thank you for your work in posting all of the research. But I have also seen people saying Blue, Blue, what happened on the big drop days...because they just don't know any better and likely lost $$$.
Giving the benefit of the doubt, I would think you can admit like all other people I know making $ on this stock, that you dont know how this is going to play out either. But the posts about price targets, either intra-day or long term, can be very destructive to folks who dont understand the way markets really work.
This post is written for all the folks who read the board, confused because one day everyone is screaming buy buy buy, we are going to $5 or $10, and then next day everyone is saying uggg because the price dropped hard.
I beg those scratching their heads, investing/trading on comments from this board, to please step back, and take the time to do your own research and form your own informed decision. It could be fundamental analysis, technical analysis, the political environment...whatever, but please take the time and do it for yourself. Do not invest/trade based on what anyone on this board says.
And for the leaders and regular contributors to this board, please understand you have responsibility to these inexperienced folks to stop pushing your opinions so hard on everyone. Opinions and facts are two very different things, and those lines get blurred to often and people get hurt. It will make our society smarter, and hopefully richer.
This is a fantastic opportunity no matter how this all plays out, and I look forward to making a lot more money together. Please read this in a positive light, because my sole intention is to make everyone stronger. Go FNMA....
