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Re: sgolds post# 2856

Wednesday, 04/23/2003 1:55:35 PM

Wednesday, April 23, 2003 1:55:35 PM

Post# of 97743
sgolds,

I suspect Sun wasn't there yesterday because AMD could not provide Opterons for them this year. IBM most likely has the contract for the bulk of this year's production, with scraps going to the white box makers./i>

I highly doubt it. AMD is ramping SOI wafer starts, and shortly, AMD will have capacity to supply more than 100% of all servers sold. This supply problem is generally just a product of Elmer's imagination. AMD's constant problem is demand, or ability to sell what they can produce.

Most widely used figure for server CPU shipments is 10M per year, or 2.5M per quarter. If Opteron manages to get 10% of that, it is 250,000 per quarter. Even at fairly low yield of 50 good die per quarter, all AMD would need is less than 400 wafers per week to produce them.

I don't think AMD will reach 10% in 1st or 2nd quarter of Opteron availability.

Joe
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