I'm having trouble estimating a much higher fair value for the bank - what am I missing?
Nothing actually...your eyes don't deceive you. COB's price is more than a "slight" premium to BV. I had a hard time grasping the situation too. So why is the bank doing so relatively well despite its bloated P/B? I'd like to hear EI chime in on this but I'll give you my thoughts. I think size and strength matters more than our calculators can reveal to us right now. COB went from $1.5B in assets to over $2B in one year...so I should expect to see some temporary imbalances. Banks in that size range that are well capitalized, under no Consent Orders, no TARP...and are profitable again are commanding (and getting) a much higher P/B. On average banks in the $1B ~ $5B asset range sell at 144.6% Price/Tangible Book. COB is even higher but they're not alone. So far so good ...and one other factor that needs to be considered is the involvement and commitment of Carlyle and Oak Hill Capital ....they each hold approximately 23%. Current shareholders would be following some very smart money in those 2 groups. That doesn't always produce good results but this is a bank we're talking about so it does assuage some of my anxious thoughts. lol.
This bank will succeed...they turned the "corner" in the 3rd quarter of 2013. Ask me the same question this time next year ;)
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