true........ even convincing your friends to buy some here is not an easy thing to do.......... I swear i think people are more prone to trust a snake in a suit<90% the stockbrokers> then their own relative or friend.......i get this look like......."if youre so smart why aint you rich yet?"
anyways....getting back on some relevant research i wanted to see if i can make a better comparison evaluation than the leviathan comparison which is in a totally different part in the world and is said to have the best premium grade oil in the world.....
while searching i found a relatively new article we overlooked which is telling of the political mindset <pre-typhoon>
on funds from malampaya....in the article it states how much malampaya has generated since 2001 for the philipines royalties............I once knew how much % of the royalties the govt was getting but i forgot....i need to search for it again but i do remember they got a bad deal and thats why they are adamant on getting a 50% royalty in the reed bank.
My guess is that they were getting LESS THAN 20% royalties but i will update the exact figure soon....
and the article states that they have received 165 bil in pesos since 2001,,,,that is equal to 3.7 billion USD
multiply that by at least 5 to figure out what the whole profits were worth....and we are looking at malampaya in the green of AT LEAST 18 billion dollars...maybe 20 billion.
sc72 is bigger but fep.l owns 70% not 100% so the comparison is similar
Differences are also that the phil govts share is received without taxes......fep.l will pay taxes after its costs on its profits.....
nonetheless......2 billion<small number> would equal fecof at 500 million market cap and thats roughly a dollar a share right there.......thats how i roughly guestimate possibly 50 cents a share in 3 years god willing the chineese back off somewhat...........hell take the spratlies but get off our eezone..anyways below is the article
Petilla’s ‘wish list’ of power projects funded by Malampaya royalties
Details Category: Economy
26Oct2013.
Written by Lenie Lectura .
IF Energy Secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla would have his way, he wants to spend the remaining Malampaya funds right away. That’s if there’s still anything left to spend.
Amid the controversy on the alleged misuse of the Malampaya fund, the Department of Energy (DOE) has drafted projects that could be funded by the Malampaya royalties, which, according to him, amounted to P130 billion as of August this year.
“If you ask me I will spend all of it, not a single centavo left. I’d like to spend all of it ASAP [as soon as possible] for energy-related projects which are badly needed,” Petilla said in a phone interview.
The Aquino administration, Petilla said, has so far used P15 billion of the government’s share from the Malampaya project, which totaled P165 billion since the project commenced in 2001. The previous administration, meanwhile, used up almost P20 billion of this amount, according to Petilla.
The energy chief was not able to provide an exact breakdown where the P15 billion was spent. He could not also say if all were allocated to energy-related projects. Petilla just said the government used the funds for the fuel requirements of the National Power Corp.-Small Power Utilities Group, for the Pantawid Pasada fuel-subsidy program for Jeepneys, and for the cost incurred when it took delivery of a Navy ship from the US government.
Wish list
PETILLA enumerated a number of projects that can be funded by the Malampaya deepwater gas-to-power project, a joint undertaking between the Philippine government and the private sector, assuming that there are enough funds left.
On top of his list is the installation of solar panels for houses. “The concept here is that the funds from Malampaya will be used for financing not as a grant but more as a loan. Solar energy will reduce the need for additional power plants. It’s cheaper and greener,” Petilla said.
Initially, the DOE is targeting 1,000 megawatts (MW) in solar capacity to be distributed to 100 houses.
Malampaya funds can also be tapped to electrify more barangays in far-flung areas, he added.
If there’s money left, Petilla said he wants to beef up the security of the Philippine Navy and the Philippine Coast Guard so these, in turn, can help thwart threats from neighboring countries that claim ownership of, say the Recto Bank in the West Philippine Sea, where oil-exploration work has yet to start.
Recto Bank is covered by the oil-and-gas exploration contract awarded by the Philippine government—Service Contract 72—where Forum Energy Plc. has a 70-percent stake. Forum Energy is 64.45-percent owned by Philex Mining Corp. The company was supposed to conduct geotechnical investigation that would include surface exploration, but was unable to get the required approval from the government due to diplomatic issues with China.
“I am about to issue more oil-exploration contracts, but how do you expect the private sector to conduct exploration work if there are threats. We continue to be bullied because they see that we can’t protect our assets,” Petilla said.
The Philippines is of the position that Recto Bank is an undisputed Philippine territory. China, however, claims it as one of its territories.
“We don’t want to cause a World War III. We are not being confrontational but if they see that we lack the navy ships that could escort the drillers when they conduct exploration work, then we are easy target. The security of an oil field is extremely important,” Petilla added.
The energy chief said these are merely proposals that have yet to be firmed up before the DOE actually makes a formal presentation to President Aquino.
“I would like to get the feel of Malacañang. Though I think they are open, but with the ongoing controversy, there are also others who would want the remaining Malampaya funds untouch. Let’s see,” Petilla said.
Misinterpretation
WITH P130 billion left from the Malampaya fund, Petilla assured that the entire amount will be spent for energy-related projects as far as the present administration is concerned.
To safeguard the release of the said fund, the agency is pushing for the issuance of a clarificatory executive order to make sure that the Malampaya royalties will be utilized for energy-related ventures.
“The interpretation of the previous administration was that the funds can be used for any projects as long as there is an approval from the President but the current administration said it can only be used for energy-related projects. It’s a matter of interpretation and so to avoid confusion, there might be a need for the issuance of an executive order that will clarify the law,” Petilla said.
Section 8 of Presidential Decree 910 states that “all fees, revenues and receipts of the board [Energy Development Board] from any and all sources, including receipts from service contracts and agreements, such as application and processing fees, signature bonus, discovery bonus, production bonus; all money collected from concessionaires, representing unspent work obligations, fines and penalties under the Petroleum Act of 1949; as well as the government share representing royalties, rentals, production share on service contracts and similar payments on the exploration, development and exploitation of energy resources, shall form part of a special fund to be used to finance energy-resource development and exploitation programs and projects of the government and for such other purposes as may be hereafter directed by the President.”
“The President already said the interpretation is really energy related, so you can be assured that for the term of the President, the funds will not be used for any other projects other than energy related,” added Petilla.
The energy secretary gave this assurance amid reports that some P900 million from the Malampaya fund was allegedly distributed to 12 bogus non-governmental organizations linked to businesswoman Janet Lim-Napoles, the alleged mastemind behind the pork-barrel scam.
Malampaya gas running out
PETILLA stressed the need for more exploration projects so that by the time that gas from Malampaya runs out there will be other alternatives.
He said the Malampaya deepwater-to-gas field in northwest Palawan would eventually be depleted by 2020, which is why the country needs to find other sources of natural gas.
At present, Malampaya supplies to three natural-gas-fired power plants with a total capacity of 2,700 MW.
“I hope we can drill, but we can’t. As long as we can’t protect our assets, we can’t drill,” said Petilla, who was referring to the Recto Bank, which has far bigger reserves than in Malampaya.
The DOE has said the natural gas at Recto Bank exceeds the 2.7 trillion cubic feet in the Malampaya Natural Gas Field, which has for years provided the country billions in revenue.
Malampaya now supplies 40 percent of power to provide electricity to Luzon. Of the 2.7-trillion cubic feet of reserves in the field off Palawan, an estimated 1.2-trillion cubic feet of natural gas has been used.
LNG
PETILLA said the situation now presents two options. First, Petilla hopes that the Philippines and China set aside their differences so the consortium behind Service Contract 72 can proceed to drill. Second, Petilla cited that liquefied natural gas (LNG) could be tapped as replacement for Malampaya natural gas.
“We hope the territorial dispute can be set aside for the meantime and allow the drilling to be finished. If not, then we can’t drill. Since we can’t drill, we move to LNG but LNG is imported and we don’t make money out of it,” Petilla said.
LNG is natural gas that has been converted into a liquid state for easier storage and transportation. LNG is then regassified and distributed through pipelines as natural gas to target facilities.
There are already a number of firms that would want to venture into LNG and develop LNG facilities.
Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp. has said that it will build an LNG regasification terminal beside its refinery in Batangas with an estimated cost of $1 billion.
First Gen Corp. of the Lopez group earlier announced plans to put up an LNG terminal by 2016. Construction is being eyed as early as next year in order to hit its 2016 target.
First Gen expects it will probably spend at least $1 billion for the terminal to be built on a 20-hectare lot near the company’s Santa Rita power plant.
France-based petroleum firm Total is also evaluating plans to supply LNG and partner with a company that will built an LNG regasification terminal.
