The Calendar 2012 numbers don't show anything like what you say they do. Nothing can be extrapolated from the future just from them. First of all, none of the recurring revenue from Costco has begun to show yet. Second the assumption that unit sales of a product that is repeatedly pushed by Costco in multiple ways and is so well reviewed by the customers sells at the same pace today or did even 6 months into the agreement as it did right when it first showed up on the web site is faulty at best. Third, the important comparison is not the first 2 quarters of fiscal 2013 to each other but how much better is MDHI performing compared to before it was being sold by Costco.
Therefore the important thing to note is that the quarter ending 9-30-12 had revenue of $95,426 up from $38,115 over the same time period in 2011 an the Quarter ending 12-31-2012 had revenue of $102,280 up from $79,546. That is an increase of $80,045 vs the same 6 six month period from 2011 to 2012. Since we also know that revenue form the quarter ending 3-31-12 was $45,624 it is clear that Costco sales that began just before the end of fiscal 2012 is the primary force driving the additional sales.
The average additional monthly revenue from the first have of fiscal 2013 compared to the first half of 2011 is up $80,045. Averaged over 6 months that comes to $13,341 additional revenue per month over the previous year. Even though we know this is primarily from Costco sales we will estimate conservatively that only 75% of that revenue comes from Costco or approximately $10,000 in monthly revenue comes from Costco. That is about 100 units sold per month at $100 per unit from Costco.
Each month through the end of 2012, MDHI collects $10000 from 100 new sales without even getting any recurring revenue. At the start of January 2013, the recurring revenue begins. That month MDHI gets the initial $30 monitoring fee for the first 100 units sold by Costco units and the same 10 grand from the new Costco sales. Next month there is revenue from the monitoring fee on 200 units plus the revenue from the new 100 units sold. The next month recurring revenue from monthly monitoring fees is received for 300 units and so on.
This number from recurring revenue keeps growing. 18 months into the Costco relation ship, 18000 units have been sold and 12000 of those units are paying recurring revenue. MDHI's approximate revenue from Costco in the 18th month, have expanded to $46,000 and are still growing. At 24 months, MDHI is receiving $6400.00 per month from the Costco agreement alone. These figures do no even take into account the other distribution sources.
At 36 months, MDHI's revolving monthly revenue will be $100,000.00. Again, this assumes zero product growth despite all the support Costco provides and and the nearly perfect reviews
