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MNT

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Alias Born 05/19/2011

MNT

Re: throwerw post# 3341

Tuesday, 10/29/2013 11:54:35 PM

Tuesday, October 29, 2013 11:54:35 PM

Post# of 3470
Allied Nevada Bonds

I think beyond the numbers which does look interesting, there are several key points to the decline, many of which is operational.

1) firm expected net cash costs to rise from $709/oz (1H 2013) to $800-825/oz (FY 2013)due to operational issues at Hycroft mine

2) Cash is $250m yes, but capex alone in 1H 2013 is already $200m. This is on top of a negative OCF.

3) firm also postponed their 130,000 tpd mill facility. The mill is a key component to firm's original target of 225k oz gold and 25.5m oz silver from 2015 to 2024.

4) Most importantly, the firm is a one mine, 2 product wonder. Risks are fairly concentrated.

And I havent gone into the covenants yet ..it seems though that they are nearing their covenant levels.

I personally wont buy it at 70cts for sure.
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