Trader---Here is what I know. In October, I've broken scanners down into 2 categories, 7ci scanners at Ingram to indicate the Van Line contract (even though not all of them are for the van line, I'm defining them to be) and all other scanners combined at all other distributors. So far in October I've seen at N.A.:
497 scanners sell through Ingram for approx $100K that goes to Socket. (The retail price is $230 or so, but the distributor gets around 10%. The CFO has told me that Socket's net is slightly above $200, but I use that number for my calculation). If the van line contract goes through completely this quarter, this number should be around 5000 units, for $1M. I've seen one day of 200 scanners go out, but nothing else to indicate the van line contract. Socket hasn't seen anything different themselves as far as I know. It's why the CEO on the cc call said we can say what we've been told (which is the same thing I found out), that is, that all trucks are supposed to be equipped with an iPad, scanner and software by the end of the year. I was told to look to the end of the year when the weather changes. The problem is if the drivers wait too long, Socket won't have enough scanners available and so there is a chance it could continue into next year. Either way, all indications are that it's going to happen 100%. The van line is determined to update their whole system (including putting a GPS unit on the trailers). I know UniGroup is hiring a Fleet Technology Administrator (it's on their website under careers) and part of the duty is to deal with the GPS system and electronic inventory. If this deal goes through then, yes, it will be breakout revenue. However, no one has seen the inventory selling yet!
For "all other scanners" combined, I've seen 1976 scanners for $590K so far this month. The best month I ever saw was August with $640K (but that was 22 days total while this has only been 20 so far). When you combine the 7ci scanners with this one, it's the best month ever and it's not done yet.
Somos---I've seen 214 sell so far this month. That's just average at best. Somos though are usually skewed to the end of the quarter. I saw 995 last quarter.
One problem with my inventory tracking is that I can track at distributor level, not end of the supply chain level (and that's when it counts towards a sell). As such, what I count in late September may actually carry into 4th Q in reality.
For 3rd Q, I tracked $1.8M in scanner sales. Last quarter I tracked $1.6M (out of the final number of $1.95M). I assumed that I was low again in 3rd Q, but one thing I'm aware of is that I think my scanner sales tracking is more accurate now that they are fully stocked on inventory all the time. Perhaps adjusting my number isn't appropriate. I will get the actual numbers from the CFO today and compare them to what I saw to understand better.
Japan is supposed to be back up online. I think, without the van line contract, they could do $4.0M in 4th Q. If the van line contract hits then I'd conservatively put them in the high $4M range. I can give everyone the links on how to watch this inventory. It's very accurate. If you see the numbers going down then you know you have a winner here.
As for 2014, the big contracts are the difference maker. If they go through then a lot of money will go to top line revenue and bottom line net income. The CEO even indicated that when he said things could get "very interesting".
