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Monday, October 28, 2013 3:41:22 PM
1. How long does a drill bit last? Answer: not long. According to the industry average, about 75 hours. The average drill time is 19 days, therefore each rig would need about 6 drill bits. Factoring in rig up/rig down, lets say each rig can do about 12 holes a year or 72 bits a year per rig.
2. How many drill bits are needed world wide? Answer: many. Not getting ahead of ourselves, BLFR has just targeted domestic rigs. Currently in North America (US, Canada, GOM), there are about active 1738 rigs. Assuming 72 bits per rig per year, that would be about 125,000 bits per year for North America. Let's give BLFR an extremely generous market penetration into a highly competitive market of 1% for their superior design - that would equate to about 1,250 bits per year after they get noticed by the marketplace.
3. A company with a useful patent(s) is a company worth something to themselves and to others. . Based on BLFR's latest quarterly report, they generated about a 42% net margin after cost of goods in 2012. In 2013, their margin went negative after they relied on leased equipment instead of sales. For arguments sake, let's assume a healthy 30% margin. Assuming they can sell 1,250 bits x $1500 each x 30% margin = $562k. Subtract out the current annualized G&A and interest expenses, and this net margin is now down to about $240k. However, to attain this goal, the company has stated that it will need to raise another $675k over the next two years. One way to accomplish this is through convertible debt - thus substantially increasing the existing 34 million in outstanding shares. This is in addition to the existing $304.5k in long term debt that is already on the books at "credit card" interest rates. Stating that the patent holds some value to themselves and others is really immaterial when you factor in the growing mountain of debt.
The Company has also stated it wishes to pursue 3D printing to offset cost of goods - until they shell out the money to develop such a venture, it is not included in the above analysis.
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