chart yen & yang...
pullback is a hard call. we're not trading a stock like pepsi here. a lot of fluid factors wh/ can move these waters quickly.
it's monty hall time. i'm weighing 3 based scenario's on thurs & fri's action along w/ govt legal news coming in early nov & financials mid nov.:
door #1: it holds the .08 line, chops around between .08-.086 w/ a short term consolidation leading into the next leg up starting mid late to the week on anticpation of govt legality news. of course they may drop news early in the week, but I doubt they drop anything substantial, for it would seem they'll hold those cards until the last5-7 trading days leading into financials. news like earlier this week is at best a stabalizing effect to prevent mojo from being killed.
door #2: it completes either a 38% or 50% fib replacement starting from thurs high & makes it back to apx. the .072-.077 pps area. It holds base there & consolidates thru or near the end of the week, forming a new springboard for the next leg up off of the heavy anticpation nov month for this stock. Further cause to bring it back there, is to have the bottom of the high volume nov 22 bar retested wh/ again brings it back to .072. Non substantial news may thwart that or only take it to the .077 38% retracement area.
door #3: mm's really dump this hard & shake the trees to break this down under the 50% fib & take it down hard monday & tues. If no news comes thru wed., then some short term fear could set in. Logically where this will go chart wise is to the top of the high 40 mill sept 16 bar. That puts the pps at the .061. I would suspect that price would be met w/ a surge of covering shorts and buying. can't see how that price would hold long as a base line b/c the buying would be sustained so close to nov.
...of course there are always outliers. huge or bad news could come at anytime & then bets are all off. Right now i'm leaning to door #2. the news earlier this week was already figured in & though it does help, its not going to hold a drift line. I just dont see them dropping bigger news early this week. Yet, we are also getting very close to nov. & definetly more eyes are getting on this stock.
I am glad its drifting back. It's creating an orderly formation & not getting parabolic. Parabolic's though very profitable, dont bode well in re to sustainability that many are hoping for this company. If it goes parabolic right now for ex., then the liklihood of even seeing .75 becomes much fainter.
the sweetest scenario, is to drift back to the mid .07's, consolidate for a couple of days & then start a next step up to the .12 area on antcipation of govt legal news in early nov. If that news bodes well for this company, more eyes will come onboard. W/ the addition of some profit taking at that #, this stock may hold that .11-.12 area leading into financials.
If financials show true tangible evidence of not only better then projected revs along w/ a turn towards cash flow positive wh/ would deal w/ mounting capex, then .15-.20 isnt out of the realm of possibility. If profit taking then occurs & they can set a firm base, then this stock can mount its growing strategy, while the indust & govt devl continue to push forward. Thats when .40+ starts becoming sustainably plausible.
