Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[Ahrdee]

PR, Kevetrin, and tea leaves

Sometimes I feel that on this board where most go for the most optimistic interpretation of every thing, I must sound like Eeyore in a a milne's Winnie-the-pooh books.

I think last night's PR was helpful. At least it showed that the company is making definite plans to advance its potential drug candidates; not that one would not assume it, but the turn around in regard to Prurisol, the uncertain prospects of Brilacidin, and the financial situation overall and the history of giving us unreliable expectations for when trials would commence all had put a damper on the optimism. Also there was something more definitive about financing options. The following statements particularly helped.

Currently, the teams are reviewing and finalizing regulatory filings to proceed with clinical studies.

We are evaluating several financing proposals ranging from $10 million to $20 million.

I like those statements because "reviewing and finalizing" goes beyond "we are thinking about" or "we plan to." Also "evaluating ... proposals" means that there is more than one proposal before them.

Therefore confidence is restored. I believe that today's trading is indicative that this sentiment is also the market's.

However, I think many of you fellow-travelers in this investment boat are doing too much reading of tea leaves in regard to the Kevetrin Phase 2 announcement. I personally (as someone pointed out in a previous post, there is no need for "IMHO" since everyone understands that these are opinions) do not think any conclusion can be drawn from the announcement about Phase 2 for Kevetrin in 2014 beyond what we already know, that it is not altogether too dangerous or toxic to try it on people.

Eeyore would say that 2014 extends to a time 14 months yet from now and that if somebody is doing a Phase 1 on something they think is the greatest thing ever for cancer, they would have a Phase 2 once Phase 1 ends. All I should reasonably conclude from the announcement is that the results of the Phase 1 study up to this point has not suggested to the company to abandon the project. That in itself is not without value, but any significance about unannounced results is a guessing game.

In a way, if the announcement means that Phase 2 will start sooner rather than later, that would be a negative, the reason being that they are seeing significant toxicity at this point already. I dont' read the announcement that way either. To me, the announced overall plan for next year simply means that since K is the lead product the company expects Phase 2 to commence some time next year. Is it not a Phase 1/2 that DF is doing any way? My own hope is that Phase 1 would continue at least half way into next year for several more cohorts so that we hit at least 300 mg/m2.

When friends here quote previous statement from Dr. Menon saying 100-200 mg/m2 is where they hope to see efficacy, it does not mean that he thinks that is the ideal or optimal dose. It simply means that below that they did not expect to see much benefit (therefore it is valuable that something at least very tentative was stated about the p21 activation at low doses).

Everything, even nutrients we take, is toxic at some dose. The fact that in lab studies Kevetrin has demonstrated certain effects on the genome that is interpreted to be beneficial for cancer therapy does not mean that the compound (even through other things connected with that mechanism) does not produce untoward effects, or that it cannot have detrimental effects on one or other of various things going on in the human body. Think about the antibiotic whose effectiveness is measured by how well it kills bacteria, but also has unrelated effects on the nervous system and the cardiovascular system in humans.

Last night's was a confidence restoring announcement while investors like me wait for concrete developments in the form of actual filings, commencement of trial, closing of financial deal, not to mention the receipt of patent for P, to feel even better about the commitment made to this stock.