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Thursday, January 19, 2006 6:07:56 AM

Re: timhyma post# 471

Post# of 2230
Mr. Sheep Explanation:

Well, I got asked this question twice in a matter of hours, so I will post what I PM'd someone else.

When we set up the first contest (PSL1), we realized that some stocks were going to be picked by more people than others. We decided that to the degree that a person picked the same stocks as were popular by the group, that they were being sheepish - meaning they were just following the herd.

We officially created a fake person we called Mr. Sheep. This person owned the most picked stocks in their portfolio. Because we didn't want people to be stock "copiers", but rather stock "pickers", we made PSL2 a blind entry contest - unlike PSL1 where people could see what everyone else had picked. We wanted to make sure that the person who won was picking stocks that they believed in - not necessarily stocks that they believed others believed in.

Consequently, the most picked stocks built upon their own popularity in PSL1 and PDGE had 24 picks out of 76 contestants. This time, despite more contestants, the most picks any stock got was GV with 13.

The top stocks are GV 13, ASPN 11, UVIH 11, TGB 10. Mr. Sheep will get each of these in his portfolio. The next four stocks are tied at 9. Mr. Sheep will get 1/2 position on these. That will give him 6 full positions just like you or me.

The sheep ratings, or the term more "sheepish", comes from the idea that one person is more like Mr. Sheep than someone else. Mr. Sheep is the ultimate Mr. Sheep. He has 13 + 12 + 11 + 10 + 9 + 9 = 64. That is the maximum number you can get. If someone had no stocks that were owned by anyone else, they would be at the opposite end of the list. They would have 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 6. That is the minimum number you can get.

The most sheepish person is snakeman at 52. You arrive at this because he owns CORG.ob, GV, IPII, NCNC.ob, PDGE.ob, UVIH.ob. The stocks he owns have common pickers as follows: CORG 6, GV 13, IPII 6, NCNC 8, PDGE 8, UVIH 11. That adds up to 52. The implication of the high number is that a person may have simply taken the most popular (or talked about stocks) for their 6 picks - meaning they followed the herd. Thus, the higher the number, the more sheepish the person.

In my case, I'm quite a ways down the list. I picked CBTE, CHID.ob, SODI.ob, TBYH.ob, TVOC.ob, VSR. (By the way, I own only SODI and TVOC unlike PSL1 where I owned all 6 picks.) The common picks for my stocks are CBTE 3, CHID 2, SODI 5, TBYH 4, TVOC 3, VSR 2. Adding 3 + 2 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 = 19. And that ranks me 56th out of 88 on the sheep list. In other words, I'm in the lower half of following the herd and in the upper half of being unique.

The reason we make such a big deal about this is because we are trying to learn the value of picking stocks that are independently owned or corporately owned. We had tons of discussions about it on PSL1. In fact, I wrote a program before the contest began and ran it 1 million times to see who would win the most if all stocks were equal. But, that is a whole 'nother subject. For now, suffice it to say that if you want to be considered a maverick and independent and a leader, then you will want to be way down the sheep list.

BTW: There is more information about this in the IBox. However, you can figure your own sheep rating is by either reading the posted list (below) or calculating your own 6 picks (also below).

Sheep list: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9271090

Common picks: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9275236


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