Wednesday, October 16, 2013 10:47:11 AM
It is interesting to me that the stock price is not moving up if processor #3 is truly running at levels fundamentally different from processor #2. And when I say fundamentally different I don't just mean up-time but also throughput and the cost to produce the fuel.
1) The shareholder base is relatively small and are all pretty knowledgeable about JBI. A large group of shareholders are in Niagara and/or have access to pretty reliable information from Niagara. They will know if the machines are running at a fundamentally different rate and will be buying.
2) New fringe players that are close to shareholders above/whales/families/business partners etc will start buying. The above group will be pulling in new investors as the machine performs fundamentally different. That is just human nature.
3) There is a fairly positive backdrop to the stock in that they have the Crayola story and recent financing from the CEO. So that should be providing an updraft to the stock if the machine is truly performing.
4) The only weights on the stock price outside of machine performance seem to be the fact the AGM is not yet announced and no real independent BOD at least as defined in the shareholder agreement from 2012. But again I believe most knowledgeable long-time longs have a fairly good handle on that situation. And some sort of AGM announcement is likely going to occur soon. And a fundamentally different processor #3 will attract a sufficient BOD.
5) And even new PRs that seem to be full of good news do not effect the share price for long. Why? I am quite confident "big news" will be announced soon. And I don't mean that in a nefarious way just we are about due. And I am sure there will be a short-term spike and a resettling until processor #3 runs fundamentally different than processor #2.
So again while I do not think any stock price is a perfect barometer of operations, in this case I do think we can use it as a fairly strong data point. And because of the points above I don't think the stock price will need filings to drive it. The stock price will telegraph that fundamental change in processor #3 in my opinion.
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