Rock Creek Pharmaceuticals Inc. (fka RCPIQ)

[Thales622]

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Hi Paulo,

Nice piece but I have a couple of points I think are worth making.

With regards to revenues, you need to remember this product has only been available for like 2.5 years or so? Its basically like a new company so you need to factor in a large marketing spend at the beginning because thats to help establish the product.

In 2012 it got a best seller award at GNC and this is because the product does sell well. Now that was within 18 months or so I believe. That is a short amount of time to get to that position.
http://bit.ly/GXNjRj

Lastly, you are going to get a lot of criticism because there are many "loyal" customers but this makes for a very interesting valuation possibility. You see the people that take the supplement (and I am one) find it efficacious and therefore tend to take it indefinitely. So think of net present valuing the future cash flows of people essentially taking this product for a very long time.

What I am looking for in the coming quarters is for the marketing spend to diverge significantly from the sales. The sales will include repeats from prior customers on top of additional customers. This should provide confirmation.

Anyway, I thought it was a well reasoned piece.

PS - ok, I just checked the 10Q, look at the marketing spend in comparison to sales. Sales have held up whilst marketing is down. Thats *exactly* what I was looking for