Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

DowDeva:

Pull up the yield curve chart on stockcharts.com, and look at the chart of the S&P. You will see a thin red line you can move around. You will see that in the last couple weeks, the tail of the yield curve is pulling up and flattening. This is bearish for the economy and stocks.

In 2004, you will see a bullish pattern. At the market top in 2000, you will see a pattern similar to the one developing now. If the interest rate is boosted again on January 31, the curve will likely invert completely. The British yield curve has already inverted strongly according to one source (unverified).

Regarding the indicators I used at the beginning of October, just one thing I looked at was the bearish pattern in the $BKX chart. On a long-term weekly chart, it looked ugly in late September.

$NYMO (cumulative) was another indicator.

BB