Initial Claims Preview: October 5, 2013
The initial claims level increased to 308,000 for the week ending
September 28 from 307,000 for the week ending September 31.
The Briefing.com consensus expects the initial claims level
increased to 318,000 for the week ending October 5.
The federal government shutdown that began last week furloughed
roughly 800,000 workers. Those workers are not eligible to file
for unemployment benefits until they miss a full week of work.
We suspect that a vast number of them will file for benefits
this week, which will show up in next week’s initial claims data.
During the last government shutdown, the initial claims level
rose by slightly more than 80,000 from the spike in furloughed
government workers. That surge in claims can easily be doubled
due to the much larger number of layoffs in the current shutdown.
It would not be surprising to see the initial claims level surpass 450,000 next week.
On a positive note, after a few weeks of unreliable data caused
by computer glitches, the initial claims level has settled at
little over 300,000. That showed a significant improvement in
labor market conditions from August when claims were around
330,000.
The continuing claims level increased to 2.925 mln for the week
ending September 21 from 2.821 mln for the week ending September
14. The consensus expects the initial claims level fell to 2.903
mln for the week ending September 28.
The Numbers:
Thursday, October 10, 2013 Time of Release Briefing.com Consensus Prior
Initial Claims 8:30 ET 315K 318K 308K
Continuing Claims 8:30 ET 2900K 2903K 2925K
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