Tuesday, October 08, 2013 12:14:13 PM
October 8, 2013
Let's start with the large print. In the past, when I assembled lists of the biggest blockbusters in the late-stage pipeline, I sometimes just looked for the largest peak sales estimates and went with them, including some extraordinarily high risk/high reward drugs where developers were simply rolling the dice on the outcome.
That explains how drugs like solanezumab and bapineuzumab appeared--even though I had little actual faith that they would turn in positive data. (They didn't.) Some bloggers went so far as to write about it, sagely noting their risks and wondering how many of those drugs would cross the finish line.
That was a mistake. Some analysts would put a peak sales number on fairy dust; or pump up the billions in the sales column to make a client look better. FiercePharma Editor Tracy Staton and I helped underscore that last fall with a roundup of 10 cautionary tales of blockbuster busts. And I find myself repeating that mantra now just about every day.
This year, I'm stepping back and recalibrating. Some drugs are far too speculative to include on any list of prospective game changers. Solanezumab, back in a new Phase III study, is on the lottery list. If Eli Lilly's ($LLY) continued willingness to invest vast sums of money working on a disease that remains a medical mystery eventually pays off, its revenue will outshine that of many if not all of the drugs you'll find below. So far, though, the pharma company has missed time and time again on Alzheimer's. Semagacestat, solanezumab, the decision to buy Amyvid--a diagnostic imaging agent that accomplishes … what?--helps make Lilly look quixotic, at best, which it insists against all appearances is not the case.
Eli Lilly, though, does make the grade here with dulaglutide, a diabetes medication that has some major league potential. I still have plenty of questions about safety and so on that could scuttle the program. Like many Big Pharma developers, Lilly is quite picky about what it will and will not talk about. And when its top execs do talk, reality often flies right out the window. But there's a case to be made here.
________________________________________________________________
Read more: 10 top drugs in biopharma's late-stage pipeline - FierceBiotech http://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-reports/10-top-drugs-biopharmas-late-stage-pipeline#ixzz2h9DQB6G3
Subscribe at FierceBiotech
LLY
Recent LLY News
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/09/2024 08:34:08 PM
- Lilly Declares Second-Quarter 2024 Dividend • PR Newswire (US) • 05/06/2024 03:32:00 PM
- Futures Pointing To Roughly Flat Open On Wall Street • IH Market News • 04/30/2024 01:07:52 PM
- U.S. Index Futures Point to Mild Decline Ahead of Key Earnings and Fed Rate Decision • IH Market News • 04/30/2024 11:59:59 AM
- HSBC’s High Profit & CEO Resignation, Santander’s 11% Profit Surge, and More in Earnings • IH Market News • 04/30/2024 11:55:21 AM
- Lilly Reports First-Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Raises Full-Year Revenue Guidance by $2 Billion, Highlights Pipeline Momentum • PR Newswire (US) • 04/30/2024 10:45:00 AM
- Tirzepatide reduced sleep apnea severity by up to nearly two-thirds in adults with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and obesity • PR Newswire (US) • 04/17/2024 10:15:00 AM
- Lilly Confirms Date and Conference Call for First-Quarter 2024 Financial Results Announcement • PR Newswire (US) • 04/16/2024 02:00:00 PM
- Cal-Maine Surges on Strong Quarterly Performance, Taiwan Earthquake Disrupts Tech Supply Chain, and More • IH Market News • 04/03/2024 11:12:20 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/11/2024 08:27:13 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/11/2024 08:24:43 PM
- More than two-thirds of people with atopic dermatitis and skin of color experienced skin improvement in a first-of-its-kind lebrikizumab study • PR Newswire (US) • 03/10/2024 08:00:00 PM
- U.S. Food and Drug Administration to Convene Advisory Committee Meeting to Discuss the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 Study of Donanemab • PR Newswire (US) • 03/08/2024 11:45:00 AM
- Lilly's Newest Phase of Get Better Campaign Challenges Misperceptions About Obesity Care • PR Newswire (US) • 03/07/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Lilly Announces Details of Presentations at 2024 American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting • PR Newswire (US) • 03/05/2024 10:00:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/21/2024 09:26:36 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/21/2024 09:24:21 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/21/2024 09:21:44 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/21/2024 09:18:56 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/21/2024 09:16:57 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/20/2024 09:05:40 PM
- Lilly to Participate in Cowen's 44th Annual Health Care Conference • PR Newswire (US) • 02/20/2024 03:00:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/16/2024 09:05:32 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/15/2024 08:05:58 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 09:44:44 PM
Avant Technologies Equipping AI-Managed Data Center with High Performance Computing Systems • AVAI • May 10, 2024 8:00 AM
VAYK Discloses Strategic Conversation on Potential Acquisition of $4 Million Home Service Business • VAYK • May 9, 2024 9:00 AM
Bantec's Howco Awarded $4.19 Million Dollar U.S. Department of Defense Contract • BANT • May 8, 2024 10:00 AM
Element79 Gold Corp Successfully Closes Maverick Springs Option Agreement • ELEM • May 8, 2024 9:05 AM
Kona Gold Beverages, Inc. Achieves April Revenues Exceeding $586,000 • KGKG • May 8, 2024 8:30 AM
Epazz plans to spin off Galaxy Batteries Inc. • EPAZ • May 8, 2024 7:05 AM