NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[JG36]

So evidently when you bought the (absolutely dead normal for biotech) slippage in the projections did not bother you.

Actually, it did bother me. Some people don't understand why I'd hold a stock that has in my view less than a 50% chance of succeeding. They don't understand expectation. If this stock has a 25% chance of success, but will go up by a factor of at least 10 if it does, it has high positive expectation and it's worth having some of it in your portfolio (just don't mortgage your house for it). It is a fact that schedules have slipped by many years. If you don't regard that as important, fine. But it is a fact nonetheless. I agree that scientific results matter more than sticking to a schedule. But the delays have consequences:

1. Each year of delay increases the odds that some competing product will be brought to market first, taking away market share from NNVC.

2. Each major delay hurts the credibility of NNVC management. Investors begin to wonder whether these guys know what they are doing.

3. Cash must be spent every month. If further delays are so great that NNVC again has to raise cash before clinical trials have happened, that's likely to be done at very poor terms. That won't happen unless the delays are extreme, but we've seen extreme delays before.

4. Every year we don't have Flucide or Denguecide on the market is a year that people die who could have lived.