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Re: crunch55 post# 19903

Saturday, 09/21/2013 5:33:33 PM

Saturday, September 21, 2013 5:33:33 PM

Post# of 104446
You're correct that my analysis may be off but it's hard to pin down the math since the company has no product revenue at all. Meaning all fair value calculations need to be made solely based on equity issuance. It simplifies in one way wrt cash flow but makes it much tougher given that the filings are littered with discrete share payouts. It's probably due to my inexperience since I've never worked with a financial structure that is in this bad of shape.

In a nutshell, my last calculation showed an average, absolute minimum of 3m shares/month burn rate as ramping increases into the 2015 Rice date that was recently revealed. But that assumes that the Nov 4 convertible date is extended once again.

If you don't mind sharing, at what point does your model show 100% dilution from 4Q 2012? That would greatly help me find my mistake, thanks.

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