Cash, I agree in trading by what the market is actually doing in the present moment. What sparked this whole dialogue is the rather bullish projections concerning the market's future. In response, I shared a divergent opinion, and then you know the dialogue since.
I use the Hurst cycles to anticipate market action and then use the market action to verify actual direction.
I haven't made a firm prediction concerning what happens next. Honestly, I don't know.
Still, it seems a natural tendency even among the best analysts on this board to speculate concerning where the market is going, and I do enjoy that aspect of the game.
I don't trade based on speculations. I do sharpen my wits through the discussion, however.
NOTE TO REBELMAN: I'm not fighting the tape. Just not getting carried away by the bullish sentiment. The discussion keeps me sensitive to the details--and from going to sleep.
TO ANYONE AND EVERYONE TRADING SHORT AT THIS TIME: Just know that you *are* speculating and exit the moment the market proves you wrong. Don't go short here because I have influenced you to do so. If I am correct in my assessment, the market will give plenty of signals and ample time to catch the sweet spot.
I'm not writing here because I'm disappointed by the lack of a significant 80-week low. When I looked over the evidence, I just got cranked by what I was seeing--that the 80-week low or the amplitude of the 80-week low has likely been delayed from when we would normally expect it. It is hard to explain why I'm so cranked on this one, but I feel like I'm plugged into a live wire. If the market does head down in a significant way, I don't want to get a big head over it. I want to understand what happened, what evidence I had, how I knew. If it turns out that I'm dead wrong, I don't want anyone rubbing it in my face either. I may be right and I may be wrong. At least I'm learning from the process.
Chuck, I promise to lay out the evidence I have within the next 24 hours.
BB
BB
AI
