Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

Cash: Airdale has published on this board more than once that the 20-week low came actually came in in December 2004. He has also written that the low in January 2005 was a 5-week cycle down with increased amplitude.

I can see that this discussion is not going to work. Clearly there is a divergence among the Hurst experts as revealed in the published record of this board. That's fine. I appreciate the Hurst model anyway.

All my opinions expressed recently are purely academic unless the market does head down with the amplitude normally associated with a 80-week cycle low. If it actually occurs, we can discuss how and why then.

Even if it were to happen, I see that there would be many alternative explanations (for example, the 4-year cycle down causing increased amplitude). So even if I am right, my opinion will most likely still be disputed.

If anyone is interested in my laying out a complete case now, let me now. Otherwise, I'm crawling back in my hole until I have something interesting to write about. :)

BB