KT, interesting numbers.
50% of 600 patients is 300 patients
100K$ per patient is 30Milj before possible look in
Another 30Milj$ before end of PIII or a total of 60Milj$.
The last 30Milj$ must only be spend if the look in is OK and if the FDA doesn't agree to short cut the trial based on those results.
Spread over 3 years it is 20Milj$ per year. That doesn't sound extremely expensive to me for such PIII. It think this is a nice strategic move. By giving these numbers PPHM clearly give a clear signal to partners in saying: DON'T THINK WE WON'T OR COULDN'T GO IT ALONE!
With the 41Milj$ cash and the coming revenue of Avid they should be able to sponsor already 1/3 to 1/2 of this trial like that. Let's also see what the CSM trial could bring us as a bonus. Since we got our FDA PIII, whatever we get out of that trial about covering real spending is a bonus.
It also proves that it is better to NOT HAVE A LOAN! We had 2x15Milj$ before and if we would still have been in that loan then everyone could see that that was insufficient for this trial+ongoing operations. So we would have needed another loan anyways digging us deeper and deeper in debits.
With the ATM locked by the loan terms the bankers would have had us in their grip. No other way to rise money except by sales which we don't have because the drugs aren't approved yet. BP's would have been in MUCH stronger negotiation positions knowing we depend on the goodwill of the banks or their upfront payments. This AGAIN gives the ATM a leverage largely behind its % dilution.
With overall survival as an end-point the saboteurs will have to find other ways then they did in NSCLC PII! No point in bringing the control arm MOS close to the Bavi arms MOS. You need the patients to die to sabotage this trial. That will seriously limit the number of people that you can muster to do the sabotage. We are talking about premeditated murder then!
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals the Microsoft of Biotechnology! All In My Opinion. I am not advising anything, nor accusing anyone.
